“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino
’19 Charts
Early Morning Update
“The revolutionary idea that defines the boundary between modern times and the past is the mastery of risk: the notion that the future is more than the whim of the gods and that men and women are not passive before nature. Until human beings discovered a way across that boundary, the future was a mirror of the past or the murky domain of oracles and soothsayers who held a monopoly over knowledge of anticipated events.” – Peter L. Bernstein
If you missed our latest posts, here are the key levels for > NZDUSD AND GBPUSD. These remain two of the most interesting chart for this week.
In today’s webinar we are going to update our outlook on indices and our FOMC/OPEX setup:
As you can see in the above chart, it’s really important to understand context and flows into these events. It’s worth taking the time to study to avoid blindly fighting flows and overall, just making things harder than they should be.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Kiwi into RBNZ
One of the key charts we would be keeping an eye on this week is the weekly NZDUSD. We have no real interest in taking on new positions until we get closer to the RBNZ meeting but as we have been discussing and seeing, there is a lot of opportunity around these events. Once again, it’s important to understand what the market is pricing in and that with very lofty expectations, there is always a chance of disappointment. We will discuss and map out our scenarios in today’s webinar…
Remember that on top of all the Trade and Geo-Political risk out there, this week is going to be a particularly heavy CB week. It will be key to keep a very close watch on what comes out from all the communications as we wade through this potential policy regime shift period.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
GBP Update
“Without numbers, there are no odds and no probabilities; without odds and probabilities, the only way to deal with risk is to appeal to the gods and the fates. Without numbers, risk is wholly a matter of gut.” – Peter L. Bernstein
No change in outlook for Cable following the basing pattern in the 1.20s and the political stalemate. Clearly, there is still a lot of headline risk in the market but as we stand, as long as we do not get any substantial developments, 1.28s remain out primary target with 1.32s in extension. We would be in close-only mode and not adding, simply managing our exits. We will start to discuss our views for q4 next week.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Into FOMC (ChartBook)
Here are the charts we will be reviewing and discussing in today’s Video and Webinar:
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Food for Thought
“If the problem has a solution, worrying is pointless, in the end the problem will be solved. If the problem has no solution, there is no reason to worry, because it can’t be solved.” – Zen Proverb
Seeing a lot of talk about positioning for an imminent conflict between KSA and Iran. For those that are too young to remember or forgot, here is what happened in 2003 with Iraq…
CME FedWatch Tool… markets move.
SPX chart overlayed with Powell FOMC Press conferences and Quarterly Expiration Cycles. We can’t stress how important this is…
Key Topics for us this week will be: (i) the situation in KSA (ii) Trump and the Mini-Deal (iii) RTY vs. FANG (iv) Bond seasonals (v)Powell and a Hawkish Cut (vi) Brexit developments and last but not least (vii) Draghi and a possible regime shift in Europe.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
FOMC and OpEx
“You should sit in meditation for twenty minutes a day, unless you are too busy. Then you should sit for an hour.” – Zen Proverb
As we wait for more clarity from KSA following the weekend attack and we head into a very busy CB week; it’s time to focus on our bigger picture outlook and strategic seasonal plays from here into year end.
Our Key Chart for the week and one of the main things we will be discussing in the Video Updates and the Webinars is this SPX chart overlayed with Powell FOMC Press conferences and Quarterly Expiration Cycles. We can’t stress how important this is…
Key Topics for us this week will be: (i) the situation in KSA (ii) Trump and the Mini-Deal (iii) RTY vs. FANG (iv) Bond seasonals (v)Powell and a Hawkish Cut (vi) Brexit developments and last but not least (vii) Draghi and a possible regime shift in Europe.
We are at Key Inflection points pretty much across the board and as expected, this September 12th to 20th time window isn’t disappointing us. So far, we are in-line with what we were expecting and all the previously mentioned topics offer extremely interesting opportunities.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“Be Mindful Of Your Self-Talk. It’s A Conversation With The Universe” – David James Lees
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
RTY and FANG
“Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated; it satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time rewarding and maddening – and it is without a doubt the greatest game mankind has ever invented.” – Arnold Palmer
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
As we have been reviewing and discussing for some time now, no change in our bigger picture outlook as we head into ECB. we would continue to keep a very close eye on action in RTY and FANG as these are key reference charts for our longer terms plays.
This week we will continue to focus on the current context along with the risk of ECB and FOMC under delivering on the lofty expectations the markets have placed on them. For reference, see recent action on AUD and CAD following recent RBA and BOC meetings. A lot of opportunity from here, through FOMC and into OpEx…
For some context, hereafter are the latest updated figures for the BTOP50 Index as well as some of the CTA and Hedge Fund Indices:
