“Magnitude of losses and profits is purely a matter of position size. Controlling position size is indispensable to success. Of all the traits necessary to trade successfully, this factor is the most under-valued.” – Mark Ritchie
’19 Thought of the Day
Monday Morning Update
“If you’re playing for emotional satisfaction, you’re bound to lose, because what feels good is often the wrong thing to do.” – William Eckhardt
q2 kicks off with the usual China related gap up open on the indices. All in all, our expectation is for this opening gap to fill sooner rather than later. We do not see this as a pop on anything that justifies a good old fashioned sustained ‘gap and run’ so our tactical intraday focus will be on the gap fill and what this means for the other charts too.
On the commodity side we still expect Crude to resolve lower and Gold to resolve higher but not in a smooth fashion. As discussed, this 60 mark into the 200DMA zone is the fade zone to watch in crude and Gold in stuck in a very choppy 1250/1350 broader range. More on this in the outlook video.
On the FX side, our main focus this week will be on EURUSD so far failing to attract new sellers in this 1.1250/1.1200 key support zone and on AUDUSD and the RBA decision. As far as Euro is concerned, we feel that the more interesting play is to look for a tactical bounce and as far as Aussie is concerned, we will be look for opportunities to fade any hawkish RBA surprise.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“The true test of character is not how much we know how to do, but how we behave when we don’t know what to do.” – John Holt
Today’s focus will be on a detailed discussion and updated outlook on EURUSD.
ICYMI; no change to our current thinking.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Mid-Week Update
“My ability to do what is uncomfortable enhances the profitability.” – Richard Driehaus
As we move closer to month and quarter end, our focus across the board remains on the extremes we put in last week. We continue to expect to see a lot of ‘velocity inside range’ and we will not be updating our outlook unless we close outside.
In addition to out lastest video, ICYMI, please check out our: latest blog post with accompanying twitter chart thread.
After yesterday’s detailed outlook video on Crude, subscribers can expect to receive an update on our Tesla strategy along with a bigger picture overview and update on Gold before the end of the week.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Markets Usually Don’t Bottom on a Friday
“Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that, but the really great make you feel that you, too, can become great.” – Mark Twain
As we discussed in the weekly outlook video, our base-case scenario going into today is that markets will print new lows and that focus will be around the range we put in last week.
Remember that things could remain extremely choppy inside this range but especially with all this headline flow, if markets can’t take out recent highs, the pivotal levels (i.e. 7000 mark of NQ), will exert a stronger and stronger gravitational pull.
As we have been discussing, Transports, Financials and Utilities, just to name a few, have been flashing amber and we would continue to keep an eye on those along with Semiconductors and the always leading Russell (has been our control chart and main swing short since last year).
The other chart we would be keeping a very close eye on is Crude. Once again, despite it still being in a choppy mode; Unless something substantial hits the wires, we still expect the 60 to 55 range to hold. our focus has been of fading range highs and recent failure to break and hold above that 60 mark remains constructive for our base-case scenario.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferable one that is also sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That to me, is the epitome of professional trading.” – Mark Weinstein
The Russell remains our control chart with respect to the indices and in today’s session we are going to focus on why this continues to be the case, managing out current positions and new opportunities that are setting up.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Post FOMC
We would like to stress the importance of what we discussed yesterday. Remember that the focus now shifts to how price will settle into the end of the week. Our base-case scenario remains for a weaker USD and for equities to soften into the end of the month.
As already pointed out, we would be keeping a very close eye on the weekly charts, not only to see if we do indeed get negative closes but especially to highlight the key dynamics that are playing out at pivotal levels. We will review and discuss this again in today’s webinar as it is crucial to understand what is playing out here.
Remember to keep an eye on Crude around the 60 mark and on action in XLU, IYT and XLF. We can’t stress enough how important it is to understand these charts and keep them on your radar.
ICYMI and you would like a little bit more flavor on our thinking, you can always check our: Latest Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Into FOMC
“Change happens in an instant. It happens the moment you DECIDE to change.” – Allyson Lewis
Today will be a key day for our Charts of the Week.
remember that the day really starts post fomc and what matters is how we settle after 24/48h. so yes, that means it’s about the weekly close. However, having said that, the market reaction will be key, especially in the light of the dynamics we saw in play yesterday.
Here are some additional charts that we feel should be on your radar:
ICYMI, here is our latest Outlook Video:
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Charts of the Week
“As a trader, you have to decide what is more important-being right or making money-because the two are not always compatible or consistent with one another” – Mark Douglas