“If you would hit the mark, you must aim a little above it; every arrow that flies feels the attraction of earth.” – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
Early Morning Outlook
Early Morning Update
“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” – Arnold Schwarzenegger
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too) .
Remember that, if you were thinking about the Foundation Webinar Series, August is your last chance to secure your access to these.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Early Morning Update
“But the real object of the Game is not the money, it is the playing of the Game itself. For the true players, you could take all the trophies away and substitute plastic beads or whale’s teeth; as long as there is a way to keep score, they will play.” – George Goodman (aka Adam Smith)
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
Remember that, if you were thinking about the Foundation Webinar Series, August is your last chance to secure your access to these.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Trade and Jackson Hole
“The true purpose is to see things as they are, to observe things as they are, and to let everything go as it goes.” – Shunryu Suzuki
Click play on the audio player to start listening to the Morning Update:
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
Remember that, if you were thinking about the Foundation Webinar Series, August is your last chance to secure your access to these.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Early Morning Update
“The only thing you sometimes have control over is perspective. You don’t have control over your situation. But you have a choice about how you view it.” – Chris Pine
As we discussed in a recent blog post, we considered the % play to the downside done in terms of the 5/10% correction we had been waiting to play following earnings and FOMC. As we stand, we stressed the importance of the 2880/2800 chop range on the ES and that we would be looking for this to be a bounce zone, waiting for a second positive daily close to increase the odds of a press back into recent highs. No change to our outlook and today we will update our swing and tactical positioning, especially in light of recent developments and upcoming seasonal outlook. It’s never easy and never a done deal but we really can’t complain with action and opportunity in these summer months.
Key things to keep an eye on today: essentially, Saudi intervention on Crude / continued action around the 7 mark on USDCNH and the action on bonds (especially in light of yesterday’s puke after the Ultras going limit up pre-market and the 30 year auction today).
3 charts: (i) AUDUSD, we consider the % play done on one of our highest conviction short from the 2019 outlook, (ii) remember to keep an eye on FANG, we can’t stress how important this charts is; more on this in todya’s webinar too and (iii) don’t forget that now that indices and rates are being fixed, attention turns to the USD.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Early Morning Update
“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino
Here is a summary of our view into earnings and FOMC:
– Even if we expect the FED to cut, we are not looking for a 50 move and therefore have been using all rips in bonds as tactical selling opportunities.
– Ultimately, we have no inclination to fight rate cuts or even a possible cutting cycle but we are well aware that short-term especially into the decision we could easily have a buy the rumor / sell the news event across the board and these tend to present very interesting asymmetric r/r opportunities.
– Following on from the above we have been positioned long USD and will be trying to ride these FX moves for as longs as we can into the 31st with the expectation of reversing to get back into swing position that have already been good to us this year.
– As discussed on Twitter too, this would imply that we see poor r/r getting long GOLD here, having used the exhaustion at 1450 as an opportunity to fade for a move back into 1400. We would consider a chance to reverse long (from a long term perspective) in the 1350/1300 range as a ‘gift.
– We continue to stress that participants that are riding the free money train expecting indices to continue with this run rate and annualized performance are not humble students on probabilities, cycles and history. Having said this most of out tactical indices plays have been longs for now…
– Unless something unexpected happens, our base case is still for a 5/10% correction in indices somewhere into the next 2+ months but that the correction will very likely provide an extremely interesting buying opportunity for a run up into the end of the year and the 2020 election.
So far so good. We pretty much got what we expected out of the FOMC (btw, what a circus act of a press conference) but we are not going to complain as all in all, we had a lot of interesting intraday trading opportunities too. Keep in mind that we all still have a lot to digest today and post NFP on Friday. Now we have to see if we can get some follow-through and start to strategically position for our next moves.
Today we will release a number of updates for subscribers to the 50 on Markets service; covering the key action in Tech, tactical opportunities on GBP and a general update post FOMC.
Keep in mind that we continue to believe it’s just a matter or time before Trump & CO. come back to press ‘too strong USD’ narrative and very possible act if jawboning stops doing the trick > this is THE key piece of the puzzle now for a number or reasons and possible trade that we will review in today’s webinar session too.
But bottom line: stay nimble throughout the summer weeks.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
House View
“The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just.” – Abraham Lincoln
We would like to briefly summarize our thinking as we get closer to July FOMC:
– Even if we expect the FED to cut, we are not looking for a 50 move and therefore have been using all rips in bonds as tactical selling opportunities.
– Ultimately, we have no inclination to fight rate cuts or even a possible cutting cycle but we are well aware that short-term especially into the decision we could easily have a buy the rumor / sell the news event across the board and these tend to present very interesting asymmetric r/r opportunities.
– Following on from the above we have been positioned long USD and will be trying to ride these FX moves for as longs as we can into the 31st with the expectation of reversing to get back into swing position that have already been good to us this year.
– As discussed on Twitter too, this would imply that we see poor r/r getting long GOLD here, having used the exhaustion at 1450 as an opportunity to fade for a move back into 1400. We would consider a chance to reverse long (from a long term perspective) in the 1350/1300 range as a ‘gift.
– We continue to stress that participants that are riding the free money train expecting indices to continue with this run rate and annualized performance are not humble students on probabilities, cycles and history. Having said this most of out tactical indices plays have been longs for now…
– Unless something unexpected happens, our base case is still for a 5/10% correction in indices somewhere into the next 2+ months but that the correction will very likely provide an extremely interesting buying opportunity for a run up into the end of the year and the 2020 election.
Naturally, as traders, we reserve the right to change our views any second but this is out current thinking. As usual, a more granular discussion on all of this is available in the webinar sessions and the Video outlooks but we felt it was important to put some of these thoughts down for those only reading the blog.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Early Morning Update
“As long as we continue to learn, welcome new ideas and ways of doing things, and continually expand our understanding of ourselves and the world around us, then we are engaging in the ultimate creativity of the self.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
The key question the markets have to deal with after yesterday FOMC Member Williams is whether he essentially gave us a lock on the 50 cut or if indeed, as the NY FED suggested, his speech was purely academic and therefore strongly suggesting either incompetence, being completely out of touch with reality or both.
As discussed on Twitter, we favored long indices o/n yesterday for moves back into previous day range and once we saw momo, headlines and the stars lining up, the case was pretty compelling to hold partials for more or a melt-up into OPEX and Free Money Friday. Once again, we do not think these moves are neither normal nor healthy but we are here to trade price. We do no get to decide what hand we are dealt but as humble students of the markets, we strive to take advantage of current context, dynamics and moves.
remember we’ve got Bullard and Rosengren to close the show today before the start of blackout period. ALl in all, our base case has not changed and even if we remain nimble and tight, we like tactical fades of yesterday highs in BONDS and GOLD. We will review how we played this EOD yesterday and how we plan to structure trades in today’s webinar session.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Mid-Week Update
“Strong Opinions Weakly Held” – Paul Saffo (click here for original post)