Early Morning Update

“The only thing you sometimes have control over is perspective. You don’t have control over your situation. But you have a choice about how you view it.” – Chris Pine

As we discussed in a recent blog post, we considered the % play to the downside done in terms of the 5/10% correction we had been waiting to play following earnings and FOMC. As we stand, we stressed the importance of the 2880/2800 chop range on the ES and that we would be looking for this to be a bounce zone, waiting for a second positive daily close to increase the odds of a press back into recent highs. No change to our outlook and today we will update our swing and tactical positioning, especially in light of recent developments and upcoming seasonal outlook. It’s never easy and never a done deal but we really can’t complain with action and opportunity in these summer months.
Key things to keep an eye on today: essentially, Saudi intervention on Crude / continued action around the 7 mark on USDCNH and the action on bonds (especially in light of yesterday’s puke after the Ultras going limit up pre-market and the 30 year auction today).
3 charts: (i) AUDUSD, we consider the % play done on one of our highest conviction short from the 2019 outlook, (ii) remember to keep an eye on FANG, we can’t stress how important this charts is; more on this in todya’s webinar too and (iii) don’t forget that now that indices and rates are being fixed, attention turns to the USD.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

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