“In my experience, I have to say that there was very little critical difference between the net winning traders and the net losing traders in most areas. All of them had good understanding of the basic market fundamentals, used a solid technical analysis or research of some kind, and exercised a lot of personal discipline. The one thing that stood out, the one thing that separated the net winner from the net loser, all things being equal, was that the net winner had a trading plan in addition to his other skills. The net winner knew he was up against not just the market and his competitors, but he was up against himself, too. To guard against the possibility that he (the trader) could blow himself out of the water at any time if he wasn’t careful, that trader had a plan.” – Jason Alan Jankovsky

If you missed it, you might be interested in watching our Latest Weekly Outlook Video.

As we have been discussing on our Twitter Feed, the tape has changed and more and more charts are lining up pointing to more downside across the board. Our base-case scenario hasn’t changed on the equity side > we are still looking for a test of yearly lows. Even if the action has been very choppy, the dynamics have been clear to us all the way from a couple of earnings cycles ago when Netflix first broke. We’ll discuss this in today’s webinar once again, also highlighting the importance of acknowledging a turn in the tape and adjusting to the new flows.

On the commodity side, metals continue to be stuck in the middle of the whole USDCNH debacle and the energy space is being completely dominated by this Crude/NatGas unwind. As always, it’s best not to try and be a hero but it is also important to understand when the traffic light starts to go from Red to Orange and then changes to Green. This will be a key focus of our discussion later on today when we review this in the context of our seasonal trades that are currently in play.

Naturally the DXY remains one of the key pieces of the puzzle and we would suggest to continue to keep an eye on that weekly chart and not get carried away with reading too much into intraday action. The market remains very long USD and despite the fact that we would not be surprised to see more strength, we still continue to believe that it will not be a sustained structural move. We will discuss this more detail in the webinar along with reviewing open swings and other opportunities that are currently setting up.

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.

Wishing you a great day ahead.

“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.” – Aldous Huxley

Just to put things in context, SPX off just over 5% from ATH. Not even a proper ‘correction’ yet.

As expected, the damage is appearing in Tech after we started to break with the first earnings gap downs a while ago but still, all things being equal, not that ugly. Blog readers are very familiar with all these breakdowns we have been reviewing for a long time: Netflix, FaceBook, Tencent, Alibaba and so on.

Remember that playing for markets to move in straight lines (on either side) is not a repeatable long-term way to build a solid track-record. Focus on the levels and structure. Especially when things start to move, it’s important to stick to basics and keep a very calm head.

All things being equal, one would expect to see some kind of sharp corrective rally at some point but that could be after an ugly open. In the current scenario, things should get worse before they get better and we’ll very likely be in ‘sell-rally’ mode unless something big hits the wires.

Keep in mind that expectation is for aggressive moves in either direction as the bigger patterns/move play out. As always, it’ll be imperative to stay nimble if trying to be aggressive on either side from here on.

In any case, this is where things get interesting / more strategic as experienced traders get really focused and have a real chance to deliver / perform. may it continue until year end.

If you are confused by the recent action, feel free to look back at some of the latest blog posts, along with the recent weekly outlook video and free access webinar session we posted that may help give you a better understanding of what is going on an how we see things playing out.

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.

“Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferable one that is also sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That to me, is the epitome of professional trading.” – Mark Weinstein

As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video and yesterday’s blog post we are in wait and see mode. We can’t stress this enough > remember that it’s also month-end / quarter-end so what really matters is how we settle into the end of the week.

It’s always hard to be patient and not read too much into action pre these kind of events but it’s key to avoid getting chopped up and not having any power dry for when it’s really needed.

Remember to take a step back and look at the bigger picture and how price reacts at key levels / inflection points. It is very easy to get stuck in your own views and not see what is really happening. Price tends to do a really good job at telling us what is happening and we have to be ready to internalize price action and act accordingly without hesitation and bias.

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.

“The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80% as good as what we taught. What they can’t do is give (people) the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.” – Richard Dennis, on Turtle Trading

As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, this week is all about the Fed. Furthermore, don’t forget that we’ll have to deal with month-end and quarter-end flows so don’t be surprised if trading gets a bit funky into the end of the week.

We are at key levels across the board so our expectation would be for choppy fake-out action as liquidity is sucked out of the system into the FOMC / Press conference and then for the market to find direction in the following 24/48 hours.

Our focus remains on the current DXY move. The key tell on this latest move will be if we get the usual firmness into the expected rate-hike that fades post release. We’ll be watching closely with an eye on possible opportunities opening up in the metals complex too.

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.

“The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.” – Victor Sperandeo

Heads up for NFP but especially for more headline risk, especially on the tariff front from the US and China, without forgetting the Middle East, Russia, Brexit, NAFTA, Washington-gate, etc…

Markets continue to look tired and especially tech is due for a proper correction. We still feel that there is not enough talk/awareness around how poor liquidity is and as discussed yesterday, we anticipate another ‘no bid’ event in the near future. Once again, we see no edge in trying to hold any risk-on positions through the weekend.

If interested in the Tesla debacle, make sure you check out Elon on the Joe Rogan podcast. It’s actually pretty fascinating even if you are not interested in Tesla per se.

For those interested in the video updates, you can find a list of the content we have covered to date in yesterday’s update.

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

“Safety and comfort comes with complacency, and that’s never a good place to be working from.” – Elijah Wood

Once again, as we have been discussing, markets are being extremely complacent about Geo-economic and Geo- political risk. Our base case remains that we are going to trade heavy/risk-off into the end of the month.

Today should be an interesting day. Among other things, keep an eye out for: the US-China escalating trade war, more Trump headlines, possible multi-billion EU fine for Google and for the findings of the UK criminal investigation into Facebook. Clearly the focus is going to be on action in the Nasdaq.

No change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, Keep an eye on the Twitter Feed for updated charts and commentary.

Wishing everyone a great day ahead.

“It takes a lot of effort to make something look effortless” – Ben Mitchell

As we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, GBP remains our least favorite currency to try and express any swing due to too much Brexit event/headline risk. We continue to only look for short-term tactical plays on the whole GBP complex.

In terms of the other majors, we are still looking for a DXY correction even if the path can be a bit choppy; especially against the JPY and CHF where we will likely continue to see a lot of wheeling & dealing by the respective Central Bank action.

Equities remain bid in this low liquidity grind higher and even if we expect the markets to give back these moves, fighting the flows in the short-term will likely remain painful. This is the kind of scenario when from the open on Sunday we would say that the indices look like they have to fail from higher levels.

We’ll have to wait for some real volume and for the action to pick-up before we can update our view.

Keep an eye on the Twitter Feed for updated charts throughout the day.

Wishing everyone a great day ahead.

“Frankly, I don’t see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money.” – Larry Hite

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Wishing you a great day ahead.