“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.” – Charlie Munger

As we have been discussing for quite some time, the strength in stocks is ‘suspect’ as long as the bonds are trading heavy and we were expecting ZBs and ZNs to still have to complete the downside rotation.

Since the ES and YM are still holding highs from last week and NQ (which has been trading stronger) failed to hold the break above that 78.6% retracement; there is no change to our latest week outlook. Let’s be clear; this is a waiting game where both bulls and bear have to be extremely patient as the market decides on the next move.

Our outlook has not changed, we are still looking for rallies to fail and for us to have unfinished business at the lows we set with the whole VIX complex debacle. Again, the ‘magical bid’ is still there on the broader FANG complex and things will fail to get ‘really’ interesting until we see some red on those names…

Don’t forget to keep an eye on the key levels we discussed in the DXY (all those daily reversals are in play: yen, gold, euro, aussie, kiwi, etc…) and CL (EIA out today).

Reminder, if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Wishing you a great day ahead.

I have seen many storms in my life. Most storms have caught me by surprise, so I had to learn very quickly to look further and understand that I am not capable of controlling the weather, to exercise the art of patience and to respect the fury of nature.” – Paulo Coelho

Pretty impressive moves off the lows on equities. As we said, sharp rallies after the kind of down move we saw should not be a surprise but the velocity of the moves back up has been surprising.

Yet another time, we are being reminded that markets are moving to a new rhythm. To be clear, we are not in the ‘this time it’s different camp’ but it’s important to understand the current context in order to adapt and manage around these moves. We’ll talk more about this in session later on today.

No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video and focus should still be on the Key Drivers we have been discussing in detail. If we had to focus on one chart today, then it would be DXY; we suspect that short term momentum and tradable opportunities rest around the ability for the usd stall a bit. Remember that we are heading into a 3 day weekend.

Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Wishing you a great day ahead.

“Patience and perseverance have a magical effect before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish.” – John Quincy Adams

A lot is going on and we have done our best to put some context around it in our latest weekly outlook video. Focus continues to be on Asian Equities and Bonds… that’s where your tell is likely going to come from. It’s hard to point to just one thing but if we had too, then it wound clearly be the Bonds.

As we move towards London open, the main thing that stands out is that Japan has not popped following their bank holiday and that both USDJPY and USDCHF are trading very heavy.

Today is going to be extremely important for equities as if the bears are going to keep short-term pressure on; then, today is the day.

Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Wishing you a great day ahead.

“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino

Volatility is back and as we have been discussing in our updates and outlook videos, participants should not be surprised by Newton’s Third Law. However, as seasoned traders know, the velocity of moves is greater to the downside… the focus for today has to be on the VIX complex as no one knows what is going to happen to all these instruments and if indeed, some of them will even trade…

Hopefully, we are moving back to a market where managers can distinguish themselves by using their experience/skills to allocated to real opportunities rather than blindly buying anything under the sun. Remember that the markets are still firmly is bull territory but volatility is giving us the opportunity to ‘make hay when the sun is shining’.

Apart from the VIX complex, another key focal point will be Crude; they last thing the bulls want to see is a break and hold below that key weekly bull/bear line in the mid 62s… we can’t stress enough how important this level is, not only for Crude but for the overall risk sentiment in current market conditions.

Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.

Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too). This looks like really good timing for as we’ll have plenty to discuss and review 😉

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

If you are struggling or looking to speed up your learning curve, you might be interested in our Foundational Webinar Series.

Wishing you a great day ahead.