“Danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high & falling short; but in setting our aim too low & achieving our mark.” – Michelangelo
dxy
Charts & Levels
“We may have ambitions to move in one direction, but Tao will decide otherwise. We may have plans for the future, but Tao will bend time differently… Acceptance does not mean fatalism. It does not mean capitulation to some slaughtering predestination. Those who follow Tao do not believe in being helpless. They believe in acting within the framework of circumstance… Acceptance is a dynamic act. It should not signal inertness, stagnation, or inactivity. One should simply ascertain what the situation requires and then implement what one thinks is best. As long as one’s deeds are in accord with the time and one leaves no sloppy traces, then the action is correct.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Here are some of the charts we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Exuberance
“If a fisherman does not have a properly repaired net, then his trip is useless. Preparation is the major part of his endeavor. Only when the fisherman keeps his nets intact, keeps his boat repaired, and studies the conditions of fish and water does going out to fish become a mere formality. Then fish fall into his hands as if guided by invisible lines.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
If you haven’t checked them out, you can take a look at the videos we uploaded this week: Morning Call & Weekly Outlook.
So, Dan Bilzerian got long Bitcoin (if you don’t know who he is, just google his Instagram) and Gartman (everyone knows Dennis) turns bullish on tech? Talk about the scent of exuberance starting to fill the room…
We’ve got a lot to discuss today in our live session but the main focus/follow-up will be on: reality bites GBP, the Bitcoin Romance, the magical ‘1000’ number, VIX and how DXY will likely try to confuse less experienced correlation fans (not only on a cross-asset basis but especially inside the fx space).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
No Pain & Gain
“Magnitude of losses and profits is purely a matter of position size. Controlling position size is indispensable to success. Of all the traits necessary to trade successfully, this factor is the most under-valued.” – Mark Ritchie
We are getting ready to see what comes out of OPEC today as the equity ramp, on far from impressive volumes, continues. So far, more of the same: equities up, DXY down, VIX down but with bonds and GOLD still bid… something has to give. As we like to say, it’s not a matter or ‘if’, just a question of ‘when. Stay tuned…
Videos uploaded this week: Morning Call & Weekly Outlook.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Charts & Levels
“Also, I don’t think you can make money unless you’re willing to lose it. Unless you have money that you can afford to lose and still sleep at night, you don’t belong in the market. My willingness to lose is fundamental to my ability to make money in the markets.” – Mark Ritchie
Quiet start to the week so far. We discussed where we stand, what to look for and event risks in our latest weekly outlook video.
Here are some of the charts we reviewed while we wait for things to pick up:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Perking Up
“You have to be able to think clearly and act decisively in a panic market. The markets that go wild are the ones with the best opportunity. Traditionally, what happens in a market that goes berserk is that even veteran traders will tend to stand aside. That’s your opportunity to make the money.” – Mark Ritchie
As discussed yesterday, we have been focused on DXY, ZBs and GOLD all trying to get some traction. The odd one out, in terms of USD weakness, has been USDJPY and that’s the chart to watch now as it gains downside traction whilst the VIX tries to perk up.
Unfortunately, still on new video updates as the voice is not fully back yet but you can always refer to the key charts on our radar that we posted on Sunday Week Ahead.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Week Ahead
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge
Sorry but will not be able to post the usual weekly outlook video today as sadly, my voice has pretty much left the building. As I mentioned on twitter, this does not mean that I can’t post some charts 😉 Most of the basis for these charts has been discussed in previous videos and/or blog posts so don’t hesitate to look back at those too.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Weekend Positioning
“I like to listen. I have learned a great deal from listening carefully. Most people never listen.” – Ernest Hemingway
It’s all about US data today as we head into the final trading day of the week. Blog readers will be very familiar with our view of weekend risk in the current climate and as usual, we see the odds in favor of being positioned for ‘risk-off’ rather than for positive surprises.
We updated our latest outlook video yesterday with a morning call where we discussed recent action and developments. All in all, the most interesting question remains: have equities topped and are we in the process of preparing for what is going to be the first real healthy correction or was what we saw in March all we are going to get before the next leg higher.
Here are some key charts to keep on the radar today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Gravitational Pull
“Every revolution seems impossible at the beginning, and after it happens, it was inevitable.” – Bill Ayers
No real change to what we have been highlighting this week as we have been updating our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
It finally looks like some moves are starting to come in. As discussed, there have been far too many warning signals and dislocations that rarely manage to hold a sustained pace. We do not really follow things like the Hindenburg Omen (just triggered on both the NYSE and Nasdaq) but we’ll take anything that seems to play towards our book 😉
As we approach NFP and the French election, we remain focused on the following charts:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
