“The mind, if focused, can become the most powerful force we know… The primary means of exploration is through concentration of the mind. Practitioners first select an aspect and delve into it by daily focus. Only when they have fully understood do they go on. It is like studying. When you are first introduced to a subject, you must put your attention to work in order to master the knowledge. Such concentration leads to absorption, like mixing liquids together in a bottle : Once they are combined, they cannot be distinguished from one another… With concentration, all the various aspects of the mind can be joined together into one superconscious mode.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
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Food For Thought
“Instinct must be thwarted just as one prunes the branches of a tree so that it will grow better.” – Henri Matisse
If you missed our video updates this week, you can always catch up on our most recetn thinking through these links for the weekly outlook video and/or the mid week morning call.
We’ll keep things simple going into the weekend, just highlighting some of the charts we are keeping an eye on. Don’t forget that today is the last trading day of the month and that we’ll have a lot of data flow to get through. As usual, no change to the way we like to be positioned going into the weekend… btw, we’ll start the charts with the VIX; still no fear 😉
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
The Boy Who Cried Wolf
“Trust is the glue of life. It’s the most essential ingredient in effective communication. It’s the foundational principle that holds all relationships.” – Stephen Covey
It’s time for someone to deliver and we all know what happens when you don’t… the clock is ticking. Failure to do so will likely see and unwind of equity longs and more sustained dollar weakness.
We updated our weekly outlook video with a brief morning call yesterday and patiently await the BOJ and ECB.
Keep an eye on these levels:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Wednesday?
“Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply.” – Stephen R. Covey
As we said on twitter and discussed in the most recent weekly outlook video, there is a big difference between the market covering hedges and outright risk-on buying. The proof is in the pudding and we’ll have to see how we get through this week with escalating tensions in North Korea, the Wednesday Trump tax extravaganza, ECB/BOJ Thursday and more potential inventory builds. The waiting games continues…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Keep the Faith
“Indecision and procrastination are corrosive habits. Those who wait for every little thing to be perfect before they embark on a project or who dislike the compromise of a partial solution are among the least happy. Ideal circumstances are seldom given to anyone for an undertaking. Instead there is uncertainty in every situation. The wise are those who can wrest great advantage from circumstances opaque to everyone else.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
We updated our latest Weekly Outlook Video, in a fairly lengthy Morning Call yesterday where we managed to cover most of the recent dynamics and the most interesting opportunities on the board.
Nothing much to add to what we have been discussing. Moves in play…
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Moves in Play
“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
If you have missed our latest analysis and musing you can catch up through these links > Weekly Outlook Video & Morning Call.
Trump remains committed to make volatility great again and despite the fact that the VIX has been perky all week, he decided to splash a bit of fuel on the currency and bond fire. Gold and Bonds trades were already in play and this only helped to press them on.
As banks kick-off the earnings show today, we are still a lot more focused on geopolitical risk: Russia, Syria, North Korea… there are plenty of reasons to suggest that we should see an acceleration of recent moves as markets prepare for managing risk over this long weekend. As we have seen for petty much the whole year, defensive positioning into the weekends has yielded the best returns.
We would be very cautious about fading these moves in the short-term but equally we would not be aggressive chasing. As we have recently reminded readers, sometimes the best trade on the board in the one you are already holding.
As we recap on some of the moves we were looking for this week and some of the latest developments, we remind readers to focus on price and levels; the rest will tend to fall in-place and the narrative will likely manage to shift so that the talking heads can rationalize what the charts were already pointing to.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Patiently Waiting
“Opportunities are never lost; someone will take the ones you miss.” – Andy Rooney
As we like to say; sometimes the best trade on the board might be the one you are already holding. As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, we suspect that in terms of the bigger picture / bigger trades, both the longs and shorts have placed their bets and we just have to be patient and wait for the ranges to break in a decisive manner. Until then, short-term players will continue to get chopped up by the velocity of moves inside the ranges that seems to be filled with air-pockets (low liquidity chop).
As frustrating as it may be to not see any real sustained moves, we can’t control the market, only try and take advantage of what it decides to do. No matter how ‘irrational’ action may seem according to what we perceive to be the norm; despite the recent jobs report, US military action in Syria and so on… it is what it is… you can only patiently wait.
Here are some update charts to highlight where we stand:
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Context
Master Po: Close your eyes. What do you hear?
Young Caine: I hear the water, I hear the birds.
Po: Do you hear your own heartbeat?
Caine: No.
Po: Do you hear the grasshopper which is at your feet?
Caine: Old man, how is it that you hear these things?
Po: Young man, how is it that you do not?– Kung Fu (TV Series)
As usual, on Friday we always take some time to hold ourselves accountable and look back at how we saw things developing this week. On Sunday we posted our Weekly Outlook Video and updated our commentary in the midweek Morning Call. Furthermore, if you missed the post of the great latest developments going on with Darwinex, make sure you check out the post on Reloaded.
We have a lot of data on deck today and along with all of the recent geo-political developments, we should likely see a lot of choppy and potential violent moves. Depending on how markets move within these recent ranges, don’t be surprised to see a lot of positioning, hedging and squaring as we go into the weekend.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Continuation
“Trading well is not easy, but it is something you can learn if you have the perseverance combined with the humility to be realistic about your own strengths and weaknesses.” – Curtis Faith
Risk happens quick and now it’s all about follow-through. As we said in our latest post: “… despite the fact that there seems to be a relentless bid under this market, we are going to continue to focus on action around key levels and as always, stick with our analysis unless the levels break.”
Should you have missed out latest analysis and commentary > Weekly Outlook Video complemented by our Morning Call.
Here are some charts to help highlight what moves are trying to get traction:
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.