dxy

Charts in Focus

| 50Pips
“Stopping out of a position may give the appearance of defeat, but it is not meant to necessarily signal total defeat. While others may see it that way, you must never be fooled. Stopping out of losing positions is the only sure way to maintain survival in difficult conflicts and to achieve the complete victory that is your aim. To learn how to live to fight another day is the best advice that all traders can be given. Not only is it the smart thing to do, but in the long run, the prevention of injury will act as a major building block of total victory. The warrior trader retreats not just to fight another day, but to fight a better day.” – Clifford Bennett
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Event-Risk

| 50Pips
“If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable.” – Seneca
Once again, as discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video; we are still seeing a lot of ‘velocity of move’ inside recent ranges. Our base case has not changed and recent action in GC/JPY/CHF may indeed be the tell on what is coming.
Here are some key charts we will be focusing on today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Headline Risk

| 50Pips
“It’s repetition of affirmations that leads to belief and once that belief becomes a deep conviction, things begin to happen.” – Muhammad Ali
No change to what we have been discussing. Market is still facing a lot of headwinds and we still have a lot of headline risk. We will update out thoughts and analysis in the Sunday Video.

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Long Weekend

| 50Pips
“The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
No change to our latest weekly outlook video as we move into the end of the week, month and quarter. Keep in mind that fighting flows is a hard way to spend your time, especially if you are doing it into quarter-end re-balancing. Keep the bigger picture in mind, understand the context, be patient and don’t make it harder than it should be.
DXY is still stuck and until we get a sustained break there is likely little edge trying to get aggressive on Crude or Gold. The focus remains on equities…
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Big J in da House

| 50Pips
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” – Warren Buffett
Very busy day ahead. Focus will be on positioning and squaring as we wait for FOMC. Remember that there will be a lot for the market to digest, not only in terms of what will be announced today but also for how to price/adapt to the future outlook.
Here are some of the key charts that we will be discussing/analyzing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for the Fed

| 50Pips
“My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
No change from our discussion on equities in the latest Weekly Outlook Video. We are happy to focus on the 50/100/200DMAs on ES and YM, letting them guide us as we wait for the next sustained move.
We continue to believe that Amazon, Netflix, etc… are an accident waiting to happen and that once single name ramps end, everyone is going to be looking back an scratching their heads finally realizing what an extraordinary and unsustainable phenomenon this has been.
Today we wanted to offer up some food for thought with a bigger picture monthly view of this incredibly important cyclical inflection point we are at going into FOMC:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Buying Time

| 50Pips
RESOLVE: Banish uncertainty. Affirm strength. Hold resolve. Expect death.
Make your stand today. On this spot. On this day. Make your actions count; do not falter in your determination to fulfill your destiny. Don’t follow the destiny outlined in some mystical book: Create your own.
Your resolve to tread the path of life is your best asset. Without it, you die. Death is unavoidable, but let it not be from loss of will but because your time is over. As long as you can keep going, use your imagination to cope with the travails of life. Overcome your obstacles and realize what you envision.
You will know unexpected happiness. You will know the sorrow of seeing what is dearest to you cut down before your eyes. Accept that. That is the nature of human existence, and you have no time to buffer this fact with fairy tales and illogical explanations.
Each day, your life grows shorter by twenty-four hours. The time to make achievements becomes more precious. You must fulfill everything you want in life and then release your will upon the moment of death. Your life is a creation that dies when you die. Release it, give up your individuality, and in so doing, finally merge completely with Tao.
Until that moment, create the poetry of your life with toughness and
determination.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
No big change to what we have been discussing. The main issue remains that broadly speaking, we are stuck and waiting for a catalyst. The SPX chart is probably the best one to look at to highlight this:
As you can see, DXY is also stuck, as discussed in out latest weekly outlook video.
Our most interesting swing chart (Crude), is finally getting some traction and it may actually hold the key to other asset classes finally starting to get some traction too:
If you had to only look at one level today, then it would have to be the 7000 mark on Nasdaq:
Always worth keeping an eye on:
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chop Chop

| 50Pips
“Workaholics are addicted to activity; superachievers are committed to results.” – Charles Garfield
We remain stuck in broader ranges as we wait for all the Central Banks, more clarity on possible tariffs and NFP.
In case you missed our latest review, please check out the weekly outlook video.
Today’s charts:
ES > our base-case hypothesis
SPX > fight is on, breakout will likely bring momo to rest extremes
DXY > as discussed in the video, we need to be patient and wait for a break outside of this sideways chop zone
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart Book

| 50Pips
“The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
We got some very nice intraday action yesterday across the board. As expected, the cleanest opportunity in terms of location, technicals and context was around the 7k level on NQ for a retest of previous day lows and thanks to Powell, very similar setups triggered on YM and ES too with failures at previous day highs. The focus now is going to be on how we trade into month and and if we can get some follow-through.
As we have been discussing, other points of interest will be: indices in Asia and Europe (they have been holding heavy), DXY momo (crucial for current moves to stick) and CL on EIA today (key weekly level).
Here are soe of the charts we will be going through today:
If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.