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Wednesday Update

| 50Pips
“What this power is I cannot say; all I know is that it exists and it becomes available only when a man is in that state of mind in which he knows exactly what he wants and is fully determined not to quit until he finds it.” – Alexander Graham Bell
As participants tackle the last full trading day of the week, all eyes are going to be on the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Clearly, holiday week trading can be tricky and the market is doing a good job making things hard to read with traditional correlation being out of whack. This is nothing new, we’ll just have to wait and be patient.
As we have been discussing, ZBs are still stuck and waiting for the next real catalyst:
And equities continue the grind higher (eyes on how ES trades from a closing basis around the 2600 mark):
URA has finally started to move and is attempting a sustained breakout from the 12.70/11.30 support zone. It has taken some time but the news flow is finally starting to support our longer-term theme of Uranium prices turning up and moving back in line with the cyclical economics:

As we go into this long week-end break, here are some links to keep you busy until the next update:
Catch you all back on Sunday for the next Weekly Outlook Video.
Wishing everyone a great break!

Chart Overview

| 50Pips
“In my experience, I have to say that there was very little critical difference between the net winning traders and the net losing traders in most areas. All of them had good understanding of the basic market fundamentals, used a solid technical analysis or research of some kind, and exercised a lot of personal discipline. The one thing that stood out, the one thing that separated the net winner from the net loser, all things being equal, was that the net winner had a trading plan in addition to his other skills. The net winner knew he was up against not just the market and his competitors, but he was up against himself, too. To guard against the possibility that he (the trader) could blow himself out of the water at any time if he wasn’t careful, that trader had a plan.” – Jason Alan Jankovsky
If you missed it, don’t forget to take a look at our latest weekly outlook video.
He are some of the charts we are going to be reviewing today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Pause

| 50Pips
“We cannot see our reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.” – Taoist proverb
Tuesday and Wednesday candles in the ES are telling you where we’re at; basically, market is not sure if it’s time to book gains and get real or simply ignore everything and continue ramping…
Our base-case hasn’t changed; market is in a topping phase where charts like Dax, Nasdaq, Amazon, Google and Tesla have already topped. Market internals continue to look weak and charts like JNK, IYT, XRT and IWM are not painting a picture on strength and stamina… keep an eye on these.
As recently discussed, we’ll be keeping an eye on XLF into opening flows today. Extremely interesting chart location…
No change to what we have been discussing on the FX side, don’t forget to keep an eye on the GBPJPY swing, we’re approaching a pivotal level in the middle of the broader range we have seen for the most part of this year.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Interesting Times Ahead

| 50Pips
“If you look around, complacency is the great disease of your autumn years, and I work hard to prevent that.” – Nick Cave
Old time blog readers have sat through more than enough rants about who looks at the Dow when talking about the market so we’ll avoid going down that route but it would be a shame not to save this tweet and add the accompanying chart:

Back to trader talk, here is where we are in terms of context:

Now that Apple earning are out of the way and as discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, we’ll have to see how the data flow into the rest of the week shapes up. Overall the ramp higher continues but as we have been highlighting (keep an eye on updated charts posted on Twitter), there are still a lot of signs of weakness in many tech names and the transports chart is downright ugly.
Very nice action on Crude at the key pivotal 50 level, keep an eye on 48.20s for the next leg of this move as it tries to get some traction.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Patience

| 50Pips
“Determination is the strength that will enable you to pass the barrier of useless thoughts in order to create positive thoughts and to be successful in whatever you wish. It comes from within and its partner is patience. Patience teaches you not to push but rather to wait and appreciate the game of life instead, knowing that nothing remains the same, and everything will change at some point.” – bkwsu.org
No change in outlook from our side as we move into the last trading day of the week and quarter. It will be very interesting to see if the magical bid returns into equities to avoid a nasty close into this long weekend or if indeed, this healthy retracement will continue and give everyone plenty to talk about before we get back into full swing of things on Wednesday.
Readers are well aware of our current stance on the NQ, where we feel something broke on Friday 9th and indeed, action seems to be confirming this. However, it is important to note that what we have witnessed so far, across the board, is merely a flesh wound… nothing to write home about; at least, not yet.
In other news, we are watching GC and ZBs very closely, more on this in the near future… here are some key charts and levels for today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Follow Through

| 50Pips
“What seems like a crazy idea today eventually grows. It’s a ‘with hindsight’ thing. One day, someone will turn around and say;That was genius.” – Natalie Massenet
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video. It’s all about follow through now that we have pulled back from these recent highs.
Our main focus remains on CL (unresolved business in the low 40s), GBP (still structurally short across the board) and NQ (something important happened last Friday and we expect more downside).
Here are some of the charts we will be reviewing/discussing today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Week Ahead

| 50Pips
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge
Sorry but will not be able to post the usual weekly outlook video today as sadly, my voice has pretty much left the building. As I mentioned on twitter, this does not mean that I can’t post some charts 😉 Most of the basis for these charts has been discussed in previous videos and/or blog posts so don’t hesitate to look back at those too.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

The Boy Who Cried Wolf

| 50Pips
“Trust is the glue of life. It’s the most essential ingredient in effective communication. It’s the foundational principle that holds all relationships.” – Stephen Covey
It’s time for someone to deliver and we all know what happens when you don’t… the clock is ticking. Failure to do so will likely see and unwind of equity longs and more sustained dollar weakness.
We updated our weekly outlook video with a brief morning call yesterday and patiently await the BOJ and ECB.
Keep an eye on these levels:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

All About Wednesday?

| 50Pips
“Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply.” – Stephen R. Covey
As we said on twitter and discussed in the most recent weekly outlook video, there is a big difference between the market covering hedges and outright risk-on buying. The proof is in the pudding and we’ll have to see how we get through this week with escalating tensions in North Korea, the Wednesday Trump tax extravaganza, ECB/BOJ Thursday and more potential inventory builds. The waiting games continues…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.