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Keep the Faith

| 50Pips
“Indecision and procrastination are corrosive habits. Those who wait for every little thing to be perfect before they embark on a project or who dislike the compromise of a partial solution are among the least happy. Ideal circumstances are seldom given to anyone for an undertaking. Instead there is uncertainty in every situation. The wise are those who can wrest great advantage from circumstances opaque to everyone else.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
We updated our latest Weekly Outlook Video, in a fairly lengthy Morning Call yesterday where we managed to cover most of the recent dynamics and the most interesting opportunities on the board.
Nothing much to add to what we have been discussing. Moves in play…
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

 

Moves in Play

| 50Pips
“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
If you have missed our latest analysis and musing you can catch up through these links > Weekly Outlook Video & Morning Call.
Trump remains committed to make volatility great again and despite the fact that the VIX has been perky all week, he decided to splash a bit of fuel on the currency and bond fire. Gold and Bonds trades were already in play and this only helped to press them on.
As banks kick-off the earnings show today, we are still a lot more focused on geopolitical risk: Russia, Syria, North Korea… there are plenty of reasons to suggest that we should see an acceleration of recent moves as markets prepare for managing risk over this long weekend. As we have seen for petty much the whole year, defensive positioning into the weekends has yielded the best returns.
We would be very cautious about fading these moves in the short-term but equally we would not be aggressive chasing. As we have recently reminded readers, sometimes the best trade on the board in the one you are already holding.
As we recap on some of the moves we were looking for this week and some of the latest developments, we remind readers to focus on price and levels; the rest will tend to fall in-place and the narrative will likely manage to shift so that the talking heads can rationalize what the charts were already pointing to.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Patiently Waiting

| 50Pips
“Opportunities are never lost; someone will take the ones you miss.” – Andy Rooney
As we like to say; sometimes the best trade on the board might be the one you are already holding. As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, we suspect that in terms of the bigger picture / bigger trades, both the longs and shorts have placed their bets and we just have to be patient and wait for the ranges to break in a decisive manner. Until then, short-term players will continue to get chopped up by the velocity of moves inside the ranges that seems to be filled with air-pockets (low liquidity chop).
As frustrating as it may be to not see any real sustained moves, we can’t control the market, only try and take advantage of what it decides to do. No matter how ‘irrational’ action may seem according to what we perceive to be the norm; despite the recent jobs report, US military action in Syria and so on… it is what it is… you can only patiently wait.
Here are some update charts to highlight where we stand:

If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Buy The Dip

| 50Pips
“When it is obvious that the goals cannot be reached, don’t adjust the goals, adjust the action steps.” – Confucius
We highlighted our views in the latest Weely Outlook Video and despite the fact that there seems to be a relentless bid under this market, we are going to continue to focus on action around key levels and as always, stick with our analysis unless the levels break.
Again, there is an awful lot of key data out across the board this whole week and as far as we are concerned, a lot of chop inside wide ranges and we are not going to jump to conclusions, buy the dip or get excited with a little downside that doesn’t immediately follow-through. It’s a process… don’t forget to keep an eye on Bonds and Gold.
3 Key Charts for today: ES, Crude and GBPUSD.
If you missed the post of the great latest developments going on with Darwinex, make sure you check out the post on Reloaded.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Still Waters Run Deep

| 50Pips
“It’s not how much you have learned, but how much you have absorbed from what you have learned. It is not how much fixed knowledge you can accumulate, but what you can apply livingly that counts…” – Bruce Lee
The levels discussed in our Weely Outlook Video and in our Morning Call remain largely unchanged. As frustrating as it may be, we just have to be patient and let things play out. These last two days of the week, month and quarter are going to be very interesting and hopefully will add some clarity to the bigger picture and longer term cycles.
As far as the intraday action on currencies, we are still stuck in very choppy action around current levels: 1.08 Euro, 1.24 Cable, 111 Yen, as the DXY continues to flirt with the 100 mark. We feel that a lot of market participants are eagerly waiting for sustained breaks and momentum to accelerate but unfortunately, we feel that there is no reason for these move to trigger without a real catalyst.

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Constructive Action

| 50Pips
“Opportunity dances with those already on the dance floor.” – H. Jackson Brown, Jr.
What a difference a day makes… for a quick refresher on what we are looking for, you can always watch our Weely Outlook Video .
In the terms of the bigger picture these initial corrections are just a rounding error but that does not mean that they can’t turn into healthy moves. This is where you don’t take anything for granted, you stay unbiased but you realize that that best trade on the board may be the one you are already holding. Gold and Bonds were the first that confirmed defensive flows as IWM was the only one trying to move until XLF decided to join in.
To be continued…

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.