“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge
gc
Weekend Positioning
“I like to listen. I have learned a great deal from listening carefully. Most people never listen.” – Ernest Hemingway
It’s all about US data today as we head into the final trading day of the week. Blog readers will be very familiar with our view of weekend risk in the current climate and as usual, we see the odds in favor of being positioned for ‘risk-off’ rather than for positive surprises.
We updated our latest outlook video yesterday with a morning call where we discussed recent action and developments. All in all, the most interesting question remains: have equities topped and are we in the process of preparing for what is going to be the first real healthy correction or was what we saw in March all we are going to get before the next leg higher.
Here are some key charts to keep on the radar today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
The Boy Who Cried Wolf
“Trust is the glue of life. It’s the most essential ingredient in effective communication. It’s the foundational principle that holds all relationships.” – Stephen Covey
It’s time for someone to deliver and we all know what happens when you don’t… the clock is ticking. Failure to do so will likely see and unwind of equity longs and more sustained dollar weakness.
We updated our weekly outlook video with a brief morning call yesterday and patiently await the BOJ and ECB.
Keep an eye on these levels:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Moves in Play
“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
If you have missed our latest analysis and musing you can catch up through these links > Weekly Outlook Video & Morning Call.
Trump remains committed to make volatility great again and despite the fact that the VIX has been perky all week, he decided to splash a bit of fuel on the currency and bond fire. Gold and Bonds trades were already in play and this only helped to press them on.
As banks kick-off the earnings show today, we are still a lot more focused on geopolitical risk: Russia, Syria, North Korea… there are plenty of reasons to suggest that we should see an acceleration of recent moves as markets prepare for managing risk over this long weekend. As we have seen for petty much the whole year, defensive positioning into the weekends has yielded the best returns.
We would be very cautious about fading these moves in the short-term but equally we would not be aggressive chasing. As we have recently reminded readers, sometimes the best trade on the board in the one you are already holding.
As we recap on some of the moves we were looking for this week and some of the latest developments, we remind readers to focus on price and levels; the rest will tend to fall in-place and the narrative will likely manage to shift so that the talking heads can rationalize what the charts were already pointing to.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Context
Master Po: Close your eyes. What do you hear?
Young Caine: I hear the water, I hear the birds.
Po: Do you hear your own heartbeat?
Caine: No.
Po: Do you hear the grasshopper which is at your feet?
Caine: Old man, how is it that you hear these things?
Po: Young man, how is it that you do not?– Kung Fu (TV Series)
As usual, on Friday we always take some time to hold ourselves accountable and look back at how we saw things developing this week. On Sunday we posted our Weekly Outlook Video and updated our commentary in the midweek Morning Call. Furthermore, if you missed the post of the great latest developments going on with Darwinex, make sure you check out the post on Reloaded.
We have a lot of data on deck today and along with all of the recent geo-political developments, we should likely see a lot of choppy and potential violent moves. Depending on how markets move within these recent ranges, don’t be surprised to see a lot of positioning, hedging and squaring as we go into the weekend.
