Mid-Week Update

“Never think that lack of variability is stability. Don’t confuse lack of volatility with stability, ever.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Summer chop continues even if we do have Elon trying to make this more interesting. If you want to take the other side of Mr. Musk, after yesterday, your risk is pretty much defined at 420 and most likely, at a 10% discount to that number in the short-term 😉 We’ll discuss this in more detail in the webinar session later on today.
Short post as not change to our latest Weekly Outlook Video (nice action in Aussie & Kiwi so far) and yesterday’s blog post. Charts for today > updated NQ at the pivotal gap-fill level and DXY at the magical 95 mark.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day

“A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.” – Winston Churchill
Welcome to the summer chop. As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, the main risk remains in the form of headlines and developments out of the whole US tariff debacle.
Unfortunately there is very little to add to what we already discussed. At this point we just have to accept that we are in the middle of the summer doldrums and that it’s important to understand that even if markets can probe/extend moves in this low volume chop, all that matters is follow-through and what happens once real volumes come back into the markets.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” – Charles Mackay
There are simply too many interesting charts out there to include in a single blog post but we tried to quickly run through the most interesting ones in our latest video update. If you missed it, make sure you check out our latest weekly outlook video.
The focus today will be on the BOJ, month end flows, the Fed’s SOMA operations and on if Apple can save the day when it releases earnings after market close.
No change to our base-case assumptions as the charts keep on hovering around key pivotal levels: ES @ 2800 and DXY @ 95.  Don’t forget to keep and eye on FANG action, USDCNH/GOLD and the bonds post the BOJ presser.
Let’s see how this NQ monthly closes…

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott
It’s all about follow-through into month/quarter-end now. Remember that healthy markets don’t move in straight lines and that as traders, we always welcome two-sided action.
Asia continues to trade heavy as the DXY is back in rip higher mode. We have posted some charts on the Twitter feed highlighting that we still have to see a confirmed break of this recent range across all majors… we will know soon enough but we would still be cautious at this point.
If you missed out latest update, you can get up to speed with our Latest Weekly Outlook video.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.” – Howard Marks
Some interesting moves are trying to get some traction and following these recent daily closes attention will now turn to not only how we close the week but more importantly, how we close the month/quarter. Our focus today will be on discussing current trade locations, possible swings and what to expect into the summer months.
As we discussed in yesterday’s post, markets will do what they have to do but it is clear that these divergences will not continue Ad Infinitum. Remember that some of these relationship are really out of whack and that if yesterday’s moves get traction, they may have quite a bit of room to move and they may do so in a very aggressive fashion. Don’t forget the DXY and keep an eye on the NQ weekly close…

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

All about the Fed

“For better or worse we’re a herd leader. We’re at the front of the pack, we are one of the first movers. First movers are interesting, you get to the good grass first, or sometimes the lion eats you.” – David Tepper
If you missed our latest video updates > Weekly Outlook Video & NQ Update.
Today we are going to review and discuss the latest bond moves and what they mean for the broader market and the usd complex. Here are some of the key charts we are focused on at the moment:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

NQ Update

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Eyes on Tech

“Many can talk the talk but few can translate this into a decent track-record… the basics are, pretty basic but practice is more tricky. If this rings true for you, you might want to focus more on understanding bet size and how that effects the translation of your edge. Obsessing about entry and triggers, all things being equal, is probably the least important aspect yet very few ever get this. Remember that if you get your bet size wrong, you could end up with a negative p&l even with a guaranteed mathematical edge.”Trading Reflections
Once again, at the risk of sounding like a broken record > eyes on tech. If the big names can’t hold up, then there is very little left to prop up this market that continues to trade heavy with a very different tape than to what we have been witnessing in recent years.
On the DXY side, as we have been highlighting and discussing, the most interesting tactical opportunity seems to be on the aussie for now. After having gone in-depth on the DXY move and what it means for the broader market, in today’s session we will turn our focus focus on yen, swissy and gold.
Regardless of how this plays out, we can’t complain, this continues to be a great market for traders across all asset classes.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts in Focus

“Stopping out of a position may give the appearance of defeat, but it is not meant to necessarily signal total defeat. While others may see it that way, you must never be fooled. Stopping out of losing positions is the only sure way to maintain survival in difficult conflicts and to achieve the complete victory that is your aim. To learn how to live to fight another day is the best advice that all traders can be given. Not only is it the smart thing to do, but in the long run, the prevention of injury will act as a major building block of total victory. The warrior trader retreats not just to fight another day, but to fight a better day.” – Clifford Bennett
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.