Early Morning Update

“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” – Arnold Schwarzenegger

As we discussed, there was absolutely no sign of fear in the markets and expected recent lows to be taken out and we are still focused on unfinished business at yearly lows. Once again, the pivotal bull/bear lines proved to be extremely useful in assisting us and we will continue to focus on them. Naturally we would never play for any market to move in a straight line and even if we get a flush and tradeable bounce, those levels will remain our key strategic guides. Primary downside targets are still 4-6% away on most of the indices for these current moves.
We also continue to expect both Nikkei and USDJPY to catch up to recent moves and expect to see plenty of two-way trading opportunity inside these ranges on the way to the bottom-end supports.
The other key chart going into this week, ECB and the upcoming FOMC meeting will be the DXY. We would be very cautious about trying to be aggressive trying to fade ans sustained move and continue to focus on EURUSD. Don’t forget to properly understand Euro weight in this and remember that in an aggressive risk-off environment, especially in the context of China frictions, AUssie and Kiwi will struggle. No change in our base-case outlook.
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Wishing you all a great day and week ahead.

Into NFP

markets managed another miraculous squeeze following yet another host of old headlines but still closed below the key pivotal bull/bear lines. We remain very suspicious of this action and are not seeing this as another key low that will trigger the famous santa rally for a move back into all time highs.
Naturally, especially into NFP, we still see a possible attempt to squeeze these back into proper gap fills but the real focus will be on how we close the day/week and not on intraday shenanigans. Both complacency and headline risks remains very high and we would not be fans on risk-on o/n holds.
The main key chart for NFp will be the dxy. We are still hovering around the 97 mark and unless we see a proper close above 98 of below 96 we will likely continue to see very choppy trading. As already discussed, this is the key piece of the puzzle and we will review our outlook and implications in today’s webinar session.
Remember that even if the usual suspects have been talking about capitulation and reversal, we have see zero panic in the markets. From current levels, unless you see the VIX trading above 30 but really, into the 35s and 40s, this is still pretty much a ‘nothing burger’.
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Early Morning Update

“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead

Charts of the Day

“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt
No big change from our Latest Weekly Outlook Video. The focus remains on headline risk and what will come out of the G20 this weekend. Nothing else matter short-term…
Here are some of the key charts to keep an eye on:

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

“Fill your bowl to the brim and it will spill. Keep sharpening your knife and it will blunt. Chase after money and security and your heart will never unclench. Care about people’s approval and you will be their prisoner. Do your work, then step back. The only path to serenity.” – Lao Tzu
If you missed it, you can take a look at our > Latest Weekly Outlook Video.
Here are some of the charts we will be reviewing and discussing today:
  • Crude still under pressure and into KEY support > CL_F Daily
  • Dollar still looking for direction into this sloppy resistance zone > DXY Weekly
  • Germany still not looking pretty. Swing in play and we have now given back 2 years of free money stimulus > DAX Weekly
  • As discussed Tech broke back in July with Netflix and the repricing is in play > NQ_F Daily
  • The Generals did a very good job at paving the way to the upside, so it’s only natural that they do the same to the downside > FANG Daily
  • Still stuck inside the yearly range and no change in outlook; we expect yearly lows to be revisited > SPX Daily
  • As we have been discussing since 2017, Junk is really painting an ugly picture. ignore at your own peril > JNK Weekly
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
We will be enjoying a 4 day weekend and will be back for the last trading week of the month on Monday.
Wishing you a great day and Thanksgiving break ahead.

Charts of the Day

“You should sit in meditation for twenty minutes a day, unless you are too busy. Then you should sit for an hour.” – Zen Proverb
Here is a selection of key charts that we will be discussing and focusing on today:

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Focus on Pivotal Levels

“If you would hit the mark, you must aim a little above it; every arrow that flies feels the attraction of earth.” – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
Busy week ahead with US Mid-Terms Election, RBA, RBNZ and FOMC. As headline risk remains very high, the focus will be on how we close the week with respect to those 200DMAs and the 50Back retracements of the recent moves from the all time highs. Remember to keep an eye on USDCNH, and the weekly chop zones on DXY and therefore the Euro.

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

“Beware those who seek constant crowds for they are nothing alone.” – Charles Bukowski
Busy day as we will have to deal with o/n China Deal news, AAPL post earnings shenanigans and NFP.
Not much has changed to what we have been discussing this week. If interested, just scroll back through recent posts and charts.
Here are some of the key dynamics to focus on today:

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Focus on AAPL

“Kites rise highest against the wind, not with it.” – Winston Churchill
In case you missed it, here is our latest > Weekly Outlook Video.
As expected we got our month-end ramp up so no big surprise. What is interesting, is how markets stalled into the close and at key inflection points. Remember that it’s all about AAPL earnings now… as everyone is looking for the usual ramp and up and away, Bulls better hope that there are no surprises or soft number/guidance as that could really ruin the party into Mid-Terms. We will review and discuss this in detail again today.
They other key dynamic to keep an eye on is the DXY. As discussed, eyes on the weekly close and how we trade into Monday. After yesterday’s deep dive into this we will continue to discuss recent action and dedicate the new video update to current levels, implications, what we expect and the various scenarios moving ahead. Remember that if you are not paying attention to CNH, as we have been repeatedly discussing, then you are likely making it harder than it should be and not really paying attention.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.