“Reality is that which when you stop believing in it, it doesn’t go away.” – Philip K. Dick
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Tech Focus
“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt
We’ll be back full time on January 2nd but in the meantime here is a snapshot of some of the most interesting charts in our tech chart-book:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Crack and Fade
“Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.” – Howard Marks
As we have been discussing, these low volume equity ramps on far from impressive breadth are far from what you would expect to see in a strong/healthy market phase. Furthermore, apart from the weakness we have been discussing and reviewing in sectors like Transports, Retail, Health Care, Real Estate, don’t forget to note that apart from the usual suspect in the FANG+ club, we have seen a lot of far from impressive earnings and revised guidance releases. Also, once again and not to sound like a broken record, keep an eye on high yield and metals…
Today’s action should be extremely interesting as we will finally see the market reaction to both the appointment of the new Fed Chair and the Tax Plan. Needless to say, it is hard to see what could come out that would suddenly want to spark a buying frenzy (would take a miracle out of Washington) but as we have said before, these are far from ‘normal’ markets. Bottom line, we still feel this market is due for a healthy correction and even if most have lost hope, there is a good chance that yesterday’s action was a sign that we are ready to see some downside.
A good way to get an intraday feel for possible acceleration is to keep an eye on USDJPY. No matter what metals or equities are doing, unless yen can get some momo, then the move will likely not manage to stick.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on crude; extremely interesting failure at the 55 mark as we enter weak seasonal months.
Last but not least, we will be keeping a close eye on how individual names open post yesterday’s earning releases as we wait for Apple to report today. No change to our Tesla outlook, since the double failure at the 380s. We have nothing against Elon but since we continue to refuse to believe that he can walk on water, we are looking for a healthy dose of reality and a move back below the 300s into the 280s (and this is purely a conservative technical target).
In case you missed it, here is our Latest Outlook Video.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
A Thousand Words
“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” – Warren Buffett
As traders wake up to another ‘hit and run’ on Silver in the overnight session, we are patiently waiting to see what NFP will bring. We have discussed this phenomenon in detail many times in the past and will not start another rant today 😉 What we will do is leave you with a couple of pictures that are worth a thousand words. We would strongly urge you to study these charts, keeping in mind what we have been repeatedly discussing and put them in the context of asymmetric risk/reward and healthy market moves.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Thursday Blues
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” – George Soros
Even as Geo-political risk seems to be escalating, markets remain in a holding pattern. As we discussed in our latest outlook video, we believe that more and more cracks are showing, especially on the tech side. Instead of sounding like a broken record, as we wait for the next catalyst, we will simply post a collection of charts to highlight what we are focusing on:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Follow Through
“What seems like a crazy idea today eventually grows. It’s a ‘with hindsight’ thing. One day, someone will turn around and say;That was genius.” – Natalie Massenet
