“Magnitude of losses and profits is purely a matter of position size. Controlling position size is indispensable to success. Of all the traits necessary to trade successfully, this factor is the most under-valued.” – Mark Ritchie
vix
Charts & Levels
“Also, I don’t think you can make money unless you’re willing to lose it. Unless you have money that you can afford to lose and still sleep at night, you don’t belong in the market. My willingness to lose is fundamental to my ability to make money in the markets.” – Mark Ritchie
Quiet start to the week so far. We discussed where we stand, what to look for and event risks in our latest weekly outlook video.
Here are some of the charts we reviewed while we wait for things to pick up:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Pressure On
“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino
As we have been discussing, it was not a matter of ‘if’ but rather a question of ‘when’ the VIX was going to perk up again and this could only be the start. To put things in context, nothing has really happened, just a mini-correction for now but clearly a very interesting and welcomed one.
Humble students of the markets should not be too surprised as ZBs, GOLD and DXY where highlighting what was shaping-up, especially with recent action and the other dislocations that we have been repeatedly highlighting. Remember that the talking-heads will always try and attribute a cause to whatever happens (and it’s human nature to want to find an accompanying narrative) but the charts, with their pure representation of price and time, will be highlighting money flows in real time and with no bias well before anyone can assign specific cause for the moves.
Could end up being an interesting wait until we see Comey testify next Wednesday and don’t forget OPEC too among other things on the data calendar.
These are some of the main charts we are going to be focusing on today in our opening call:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Perking Up
“You have to be able to think clearly and act decisively in a panic market. The markets that go wild are the ones with the best opportunity. Traditionally, what happens in a market that goes berserk is that even veteran traders will tend to stand aside. That’s your opportunity to make the money.” – Mark Ritchie
As discussed yesterday, we have been focused on DXY, ZBs and GOLD all trying to get some traction. The odd one out, in terms of USD weakness, has been USDJPY and that’s the chart to watch now as it gains downside traction whilst the VIX tries to perk up.
Unfortunately, still on new video updates as the voice is not fully back yet but you can always refer to the key charts on our radar that we posted on Sunday Week Ahead.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Gravitational Pull
“Every revolution seems impossible at the beginning, and after it happens, it was inevitable.” – Bill Ayers
No real change to what we have been highlighting this week as we have been updating our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
It finally looks like some moves are starting to come in. As discussed, there have been far too many warning signals and dislocations that rarely manage to hold a sustained pace. We do not really follow things like the Hindenburg Omen (just triggered on both the NYSE and Nasdaq) but we’ll take anything that seems to play towards our book 😉
As we approach NFP and the French election, we remain focused on the following charts:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Food For Thought
“Instinct must be thwarted just as one prunes the branches of a tree so that it will grow better.” – Henri Matisse
If you missed our video updates this week, you can always catch up on our most recetn thinking through these links for the weekly outlook video and/or the mid week morning call.
We’ll keep things simple going into the weekend, just highlighting some of the charts we are keeping an eye on. Don’t forget that today is the last trading day of the month and that we’ll have a lot of data flow to get through. As usual, no change to the way we like to be positioned going into the weekend… btw, we’ll start the charts with the VIX; still no fear 😉
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Moves in Play
“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
If you have missed our latest analysis and musing you can catch up through these links > Weekly Outlook Video & Morning Call.
Trump remains committed to make volatility great again and despite the fact that the VIX has been perky all week, he decided to splash a bit of fuel on the currency and bond fire. Gold and Bonds trades were already in play and this only helped to press them on.
As banks kick-off the earnings show today, we are still a lot more focused on geopolitical risk: Russia, Syria, North Korea… there are plenty of reasons to suggest that we should see an acceleration of recent moves as markets prepare for managing risk over this long weekend. As we have seen for petty much the whole year, defensive positioning into the weekends has yielded the best returns.
We would be very cautious about fading these moves in the short-term but equally we would not be aggressive chasing. As we have recently reminded readers, sometimes the best trade on the board in the one you are already holding.
As we recap on some of the moves we were looking for this week and some of the latest developments, we remind readers to focus on price and levels; the rest will tend to fall in-place and the narrative will likely manage to shift so that the talking heads can rationalize what the charts were already pointing to.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Patiently Waiting
“Opportunities are never lost; someone will take the ones you miss.” – Andy Rooney
As we like to say; sometimes the best trade on the board might be the one you are already holding. As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, we suspect that in terms of the bigger picture / bigger trades, both the longs and shorts have placed their bets and we just have to be patient and wait for the ranges to break in a decisive manner. Until then, short-term players will continue to get chopped up by the velocity of moves inside the ranges that seems to be filled with air-pockets (low liquidity chop).
As frustrating as it may be to not see any real sustained moves, we can’t control the market, only try and take advantage of what it decides to do. No matter how ‘irrational’ action may seem according to what we perceive to be the norm; despite the recent jobs report, US military action in Syria and so on… it is what it is… you can only patiently wait.
Here are some update charts to highlight where we stand:
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Going Both Ways
“Yesterday I was clever, so I wanted to change the world. Today I am wise, so I am changing myself.” – Rumi
