“It is unproductive to think that the world has been unfair to you. Every tough stretch is an opportunity.” – Charlie Munger
vix
The Chop Zone
“An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest.” – Benjamin Franklin
We have been talking about expecting to see the VIX spike into the 13/15+ area before it manages a sub 9 daily close but little did we know that the fight would be concentrated inside the 10 to 9 range. Talk about chop and tight compression… as we have been saying, it’s just a waiting game; who is going to give up first.
On the currency front, as highlighted in recent video outlooks and charts, the focus remains around those 200WMA for most pairs with DXY giving you the best overview of the gravitation pull/pain trade currently in play.
In non 200WMA currency news, we would also start to keep an eye on this very important structural resistance on cable.
On the tech front, despite this aggressive o/n Nasdaq ramp (can’t stop won’t stop), we would still be keeping an eye on NVIDIA today and into the end of the week.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to tomorrow’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Friday Roundup
“The greatest fear in the world is of the opinions of others. And the moment you are unafraid of the crowd you are no longer a sheep, you become a lion. A great roar arises in your heart, the roar of freedom.” – Osho
Everyone is focused if waiting to see if the S&P and the Nasdaq Futures can put in another positive close today to make it 11 in a row… from the stats we have seen floating around, the run to 11 on the S&P has extended only once in something like the last 20 years but as they say; records are made to be broken right?
Looks like time is running out on our call for a vix spike this week but then again, would not be the first time we have be wrong and as you can imagine, the longer they keep a lid on it, playing ‘whack-a-mole’ with that 10 mark, the more explosive the spike will be when it comes… we are not in a hurry. Plenty of patience here.
We posted some key charts this week, don’t hesitate to look back and in case you missed them, you can also check out our weekly outlook video and the F.A.C.E. Interview.
Here are some charts for today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.#stocks
Buy Everything
“Beware those who seek constant crowds for they are nothing alone.” – Charles Bukowski
If you missed it, you might want to take a look at this tweet for a succinct summary of the current investment picture and prevailing mood. It’s very hard to do a better job than that comment to highlight the status-quo. Furthermore, since we are on the subject of tweets, a subscriber sent it this gem.
As readers know, we are definitely not fans of buying highs, so if forced to participate in the buying party, we would much rather focus on ZBs, possibly GC (as discussed in the webinars, we prefer to express this view by holding short USDJPY) and for the high adrenaline junkies why not look at the VIX 😉
Stay tuned…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Back to Reality
“I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw
Without repeating our rant from the IPO, we will simply present the SNAP chart without commentary; the blog post title should suffice.
As discussed in the weekly outlook video, heads up for the BOC rate decision and presser today. USDCAD is a prime candidate for fireworks today, especially if we do not get any action from Poloz & Co.
Very nice reaction on Crude with bullish reversal right at those previous lows, we consider 47s/42s to be a massive chop zone with very little edge inside.
Another healthy and boring reminder that one of these days, the VIX is going to get very ugly to the upside. Enjoy the lull at lows until it lasts but try not to get your face ripped off when it wakes-up.
As discussed yesterday, we continue to feel that the best r/r to try and take advantage of intraday equity weakness and cracks continues to be USDJPY.
Heads-up for UK data today, we are still focused on the 1.28 mark being pivotal inside the 1.30/1.26 range.
As we discussed, the most interest chart into Monday trade was the possible break-down of NZDUSD… so, game-on on Kiwi but we would still be very nimble on this play.
Swings still in play and EURUSD and EURGBP with equities still playing hard to get as we enter the key phase of the week.
Wishing everyone a great day ahead!
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Tricky Read
“We keep our cool when others don’t. The point is, markets adapt. Don’t listen to all the crap out there.” – David Tepper
It’s a tricky read on the indices at the moment but it does look like the one to watch now is the Dow, especially if it unwinds the recent ramp through previous yearly highs. All the others are already showing signs of fatigue despite the odd perky intraday ramp here and there.
Something else that is worth considering in how CL has pressed into our targets in the low 40s despite recent news and as the VIX keeps not really caring… as we have said before something has to give.
Lastly, nice little positive daily close on GC right off the 200dma, we are not going to complain as we see this an extremely interesting asymmetric opportunity for positioning into the weekend.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
CB Week
“Danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high & falling short; but in setting our aim too low & achieving our mark.” – Michelangelo
As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, it’s all about the Central Banks this week and it looks like BOC wanted to step in early and get some of the limelight.
In this kind of context, the trick is to focus on being patient and letting the market come to you. After the action we saw on Friday, it is natural to want to continue to see volatility pick up and to be able to trade a busy market environment. However, the reality is that markets have their own time schedule and especially when all the risk is stacked toward the back end of the week, it is not realistic to expect to see aggressive and sustained action out of the gate as of Monday.
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Positioning into Thursday
“It may help to keep in mind that no one said that this was going to be easy. This doesn’t mean that the basics are not simple but like all fascinating and captivating endeavours, the actual practice is far from easy. Embrace this, for this is exactly why it’s worth playing and trying to master any game.”
As we discussed in the Weekly Outlook Video, the focus will likely remain on more defensive positioning as we get ready for this ‘mega’ Thursday. Bonds and Gold have been the main tell so far, so no big surprise with the acceleration we saw yesterday, especially in terms of Yen joining the party. Remember that retracements are healthy (on both sides) and that betting on sustained straight line moves is not a reliable long term strategy.
The is very little to add to what we have been discussing but once again, we want to point out that sooner or later, VIX will spike and we are betting that it’s not going to stop in the mid teens this time.
Exuberance
“If a fisherman does not have a properly repaired net, then his trip is useless. Preparation is the major part of his endeavor. Only when the fisherman keeps his nets intact, keeps his boat repaired, and studies the conditions of fish and water does going out to fish become a mere formality. Then fish fall into his hands as if guided by invisible lines.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
