vix

Into NFP

| 50Pips
markets managed another miraculous squeeze following yet another host of old headlines but still closed below the key pivotal bull/bear lines. We remain very suspicious of this action and are not seeing this as another key low that will trigger the famous santa rally for a move back into all time highs.
Naturally, especially into NFP, we still see a possible attempt to squeeze these back into proper gap fills but the real focus will be on how we close the day/week and not on intraday shenanigans. Both complacency and headline risks remains very high and we would not be fans on risk-on o/n holds.
The main key chart for NFp will be the dxy. We are still hovering around the 97 mark and unless we see a proper close above 98 of below 96 we will likely continue to see very choppy trading. As already discussed, this is the key piece of the puzzle and we will review our outlook and implications in today’s webinar session.
Remember that even if the usual suspects have been talking about capitulation and reversal, we have see zero panic in the markets. From current levels, unless you see the VIX trading above 30 but really, into the 35s and 40s, this is still pretty much a ‘nothing burger’.
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Waiting for Powell

| 50Pips
“Be Mindful Of Your Self-Talk. It’s A Conversation With The Universe” – David James Lees
Markets waiting for Powell to testify > VIX smack-down continues as the DXY is ranging at lows and equities are moving around the pivotal levels we discussed in the latest outlook video.
The clear winner for chart of the day has to be the impressive monthly coil on the Nasdaq. As usual, we are going to be boring and highlight yesterday’s volume on this recent press and this will be one of our main discussion points today.
Reminder: Italian Elections event risk into next week. This does not change our bigger picture view on Euro but will likely affect shorter-term positioning and flows.

If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

VIX Waking Up

| 50Pips
“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” – Sun Tzu
As discussed in out latest outlook video, we expect a very interesting and volatile week with the SOTU address, FOMC, Key earnings and NFP and btw, don’t forget the Super Blue Blood Moon coming on January 31st too 😉
Make sure you keep up with all of the latest charts posted on our twitter feed. Again, no change to the base case > healthy correction on the usd with a bit of firming, bonds continue to stay heavy and equities slowly come into center stage with a healthy retracement as Crude fights for the next move at that key weekly level that if lost, could start and ugly unwind of stretched longs. In terms on single stock names, all eyes on Apple and Boeing.
Remember that recent moves across the board have had a very good run. It’s never a good idea to stubbornly fight flows and especially not into the end of the month if they get some sustained traction.

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
If you are struggling or looking to speed up your learning curve, you might be interested in our Foundational Webinar Series.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Getting Interesting

| 50Pips
“We cannot see our reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.” – Taoist proverb
If you missed it > latest weekly outlook video.
Yen and Bonds on the move, again, if they continue to get traction, equities will have to move accordingly… getting interesting. Here are the key charts to keep on you radar:
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
If you are struggling or looking to speed up your learning curve, you might be interested in our Foundational Webinar Series.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Into ECB

| 50Pips
“Do not permit the events of your daily life to bind you, but never withdraw yourself from them.” – Zen Proverb
Nice action no gold yesterday, as discussed in our Into FOMC post, this is the time of the year swingers will be out in full force. The 1250 mark remains pivotal to hold the 1250/1300/1350 range and all eyes will be on the weekly close now.
Another constructive day for Crude shorts as the 55 mark continues to attract in the post OPEC buy the rumor sell the news move.
Speaking of buy the rumor sell the news, DXY still looking for direction at the 200WMA:
Remember to not let the market lull you into complacency; vol will be back when you least expect it.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Charts in Focus

| 50Pips
“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, the theme of the week is patience until we get into the Wednesday/Thursday Central Bank window. Here are some of the charts we are focusing on:
  • How long can the self-reinforcing virtuous VIX selling continue…
  • 1250 mark remains pivotal for momo & flows + potential range shift on GC
  • DXY waiting for the Fed. Remember, what matters is how market reacts to the decision…
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Calm Before Storm

| 50Pips
“If you calmly observe, you will more clearly see situations for what they really are.” – Brahma Kumaris
As equities continue to press higher and as we go into NFP ahead of the now usual weekend risk (North Korean, Catalonia, Iran, etc…) President Trump made some elusive comments on about the fact that “Maybe it’s the calm before the storm”. Hmmmm, Interesting… as we said before, unless we something ‘happen or change’, there is very little on the calendar in term of potential catalyst until the next ECB meeting on October 26th.
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing and focusing on today:

As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

FX Chart Book Overview

| 50Pips
“When nothing seems to help, I go and look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that last blow that did it, but all that had gone before.” – Jacob A. Riis
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Waiting for the Weekend

| 50Pips
“I don’t think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.” – Richard Dennis
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video the short-term focus is on potential event risk this weekend with developments in North Korea and with Hurricane Irma. Remember that risk happens fast; it doesn’t matter until it does but at that point, the train has usually already left the station. SPX can be your guide but we would also be keeping a close eye on the RUT and action around that 50DMA.

With the BOC out today, USDCAD will clearly be on our radar. After this 10%+ correction, it will be interesting to see if we see any kind of profit taking pre/post the rate statement. Positioning is very short and the moves could be very aggressive either way with action around the 1.25 mark being pivotal.
As discussed, until we get a sustained move into and through the 18/20 area on the VIX we suspect that it’ll be business as usual.
And don’t forget to keep an eye on ZBs, things could get very sporty here too…

As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.