“Success is as dangerous as failure. Hope is as hollow as fear.” – Lao Tzu
What really matters is what we get out of the ECB and FED, not bs o/n headlines. Naturally, this does not mean that markets can’t move aggressively on these reports, especially in thin o/n conditions but don’t forget to keep the bigger picture and levels in mind.
As we discussed live on Twitter, these squeezes can easily extend aggressively inside the most recent range but the base-case assumption is always that the o/n ramps will ultimately get undone. Usually the tell can be in how the most correlated asset classes are reacting through the pop or drop around key levels and these tend to guide us in looking for the best r/r and quickest opportunity to fade the move.
Remember that markets are still extremely complacent… no fear at all. If anything, you’ll see that come in with a flush and that’s when we’ll have a good chance at setting a proper short-term low.
No big change since our latest outlook video:
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