Blinders On

“In essence, if we want to direct our lives, we must take control of our consistent actions. It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives, but what we do consistently.” – Tony Robbins
In case you missed our latest post on Trading Reflections, we encourage you to take the time to go through these thoughts. We hope that you will find something of value and please feel free to share this post with anyone who you think my benefit from being exposed to these points or simply from a healthy reminder. We feel very strongly about the need to stress a realistic and responsible message on these topics. Unfortunately, far too much focus is place on sensationalizing the business of trading and sharing dubious success stories rather than sharing more realistic, disciplined and constructive content.
No big change to out last outlook video and as we discussed in yesterday’s morning call the Grind Continues. As Sir John Templeton eloquently said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” We’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out but it’s hard to see what the catalyst could be for a correction and as uncle Warren suggested yesterday, unless forced to, it’s hard to see why anyone would want to book large unrealized gains ahead of a possible tax cut; all of which takes us back to an unexpected catalysts, even if it is easy to see that this could be. As we all know, the market is just in grind higher and ignore mode… and as we know, it can continue to gain traction in an aggressive manner until it doesn’t…
Some things to keep in the back of your mind: we still have an awful lot of potential headline risk, economic data in improving across the board, asset purchases will be reduced and CBs will continue to do a poor job at communicating future interest rate paths. And once again, consciously or unconsciously, the market will continue to be in ‘blinders on’ mode…
Here are two charts we are going to be focusing on today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Trading Reflections

– In order to put yourself in a condition to succeed, it’s really important to have realistic expectations.

– Many can talk the talk but few can translate this into a decent track-record… the basics are pretty basic but practice is more tricky. If this rings true for you, you might want to focus more on understanding bet size and how that affects the translation of your edge. Obsessing about entry and triggers, all things being equal, is probably the least important aspect yet very few ever get this. Remember that if you get your bet size wrong, you could end up with a negative p&l even with a guaranteed mathematical edge.

– In order to really make a step-change in your trading journey you have to make a conscious decision to be honest with your progress and accept full accountability for your actions. You can’t afford to delude yourself and handicap your progress. Always confront your problems, especially those related to your mental game. Don’t find excuses, put yourself in a condition to progress and evolve as a trader.

– Fear, indecision, uncertainty and related emotions all tend to be linked to a lack of understanding of the situation at hand. The more you work on your overall domain knowledge, the less room there is for these emotions to get in the way of you executing the task at hand. Furthermore, working hard to understand ever-changing context quickly translates into a better understanding of how to play whatever hand you get dealt.

– Trading offers you the privilege to be able to create your own positive ecosystem. Don’t ever take that for granted and work hard at blocking out negative influences and putting yourself in the best possible condition to have a chance at succeeding.

– In this game, resilience and self-discipline are far more important than any kind of diploma or certificate. No standardized test or program can really prepare you or serve as a good predictor of how you will fare day in, day out, in a live trading environment.

– In different shapes and forms; ultimately leverage kills. Once you understand and control that, you can get away with a lot and still be around to fight another day. Remember, it’s about consistency and longevity.

– As hard as it may be for most to fully grasp, remember that you don’t know what you don’t know. Keep an open mind and always be ready to question your assumptions. If you keep on thinking the way you have always done, not only will you end up with the same results but you will also waste the opportunity to grow and evolve.

– There is no reason to swing for the fences every day. It’s about showing up, come rain or come shine and playing the best you can with the hand you have been dealt. You don’t need to be perfect and you don’t need to hit 100%. However, what you do need to strive for is to do more of what you do well and less of what you don’t do so well. Slow and steady; keep on moving in the right direction.

– Make sure you understand the basics and then find out what works for you. Don’t be in a hurry, give yourself time to learn and put yourself in a condition to give this a real good shot. If you are wired to trade, this is a great profession. If you are not, then there are a lot of other things to do in life.

– Easier said than done but once you have set yourself up with a realistic road-map; you just have to stick to your rules, plan and set-ups. That’s the hard part. No fancy things, no bells and no whistles; do more of what you do well and less of what you don’t do so well. Never underestimate how hard it is to get used to just showing up day after day and monotonously implementing your strategy.

– Keep in mind that self-sabotage, whether conscious or subconscious, is probably at the center of most issues you will face in your trading journey. Furthermore, the root cause of this self-sabotage is usually linked with a very basic lack of domain knowledge coupled with unrealistic expectations.

– Even if you are a discretionary trader, this does not mean that you can consistently get away without having a systematic approach to the actual execution and management of your trades.

– This is a marathon, not a sprint. The markets aren’t going anywhere; take your time and do things the right way. Taking repeated highly leveraged shots at low liquidity binary events is not going to result in a solid long term track record.

– It may seem counterintuitive but the truly great achievements come from setting small goals/targets and repeatedly delivering on them not by setting unrealistic goals and exposing yourself to the inevitable failure that will result from consistently playing from a position of weakness.

– The key balancing act is; being a flexible humble student of price action and market psychology whilst being rigid on positive reinforcement and mechanical execution in a live environment.

– There is very little to be gained by actively looking at your p&l. The focus should be on what you are trying to do and not how that translates into your bottom line. If you have done your homework, you already know what the consequences of your actions will be. The vast majority of traders benefit from taking their p&l completely off their screens and not letting it distract from the task at hand.

– It is far easier to have a plan, wait for the conditions you are looking for to line-up and simply execute than to show up and wonder what you should do. In the long run, traders that can take emotions and bias out of the equation and decisively execute, will consistently have better results and less p&l swings.

– No matter how solid you get, inevitably, you are going to be confronted with a lot of adverse and irritating developments over the years. The quicker and better you get at accepting/internalizing them, the faster you are going to continue to grow/evolve both as a person and as a trader.

– Getting emotional usually tends to cloud judgement and accentuate bias. We work very hard on trying to stay as neutral and focused as possible; you need to learn to be detached. Stick to the process and let everything else take care of itself.

– Peace of mind is a crucial piece of the puzzle… don’t be fooled into thinking that it comes naturally. Just like any other part of your game; it’s something you have to work hard on.

– If you decide to go down the demo route, remember that you are pretty much wasting your time unless it is done as a proper dress rehearsal; everything needs to be done as it would LIVE. Failure to grasp the importance of proceeding this way will inevitably result in all kinds of struggles and false expectations.

– Broadly speaking, the intellectual part of the work is done before your actual trading. When you are live and ready to allocate capital, you are strictly in implementation / execution mode.

– Forcing activity rarely translates into a positive and smooth equity curve. Sometimes, there is only so much you can do with the hand you have been dealt. Markets move in cycles and many fail to truly understand how much of a waiting game this can be.

– Fear, greed and getting angry will only distract you. These emotions have a tendency of ‘switching off’ any kind of mechanical / studied approach and triggering rash behavior that only detracts from the proper execution of the task at hand.

– Remember that the real edge is at extremes because that is where asymmetric risk reward comes into play.

– If you are trading scared, you should not be trading at all. Go back to the drawing board, get back to basics. There is no point in making things harder than they should be. You can lie to yourself on the surface but not deep down inside. If you don’t really know what you are doing, you will probably not be feeling comfortable and this should not come as a surprise.

– Goal setting is a lot harder than it may seem. For a lot of people, consciously or not, there is a real struggle between setting goals that are either too easy or completely unrealistic. It’s important to set smaller milestones in the context of a bigger picture/plan.

– You should never be in a position where the outcome of one single trade could change your life; neither for the good, nor for the bad. Once you really internalize this – and it’s a lot harder to do than it may seem – then you are ready to start working on consistency and longevity in a professional manner.

– It would not be natural to not have to deal with all kinds of emotions but it is essential to understand that a low, focused and consistent level of intensity is key. The vast majority of people that become proficient have learned the importance of keeping a level-head and tend to reflect this kind of attitude. The calmer you are, the more focused you can keep yourself and the more effective you are at executing.

– Trading is an extremely hard way to make a living. Don’t let anyone tell you it can’t be done but equally, don’t let anyone give you the false impression that it is easy, that there are shortcuts or magical formulas.

For all of the new followers, don’t hesitate to explore all of the content on the blog. The interviews could be a very interesting place to start to help put the business of trading into context and to give you an idea of what to look for in terms of realistic expectations. There is a lot of free content on the blog for those that are willing to take the time to explore.

Should you be interested in a more in-depth discussion on the topics mentioned in this post and a more structured approach to setting yourself up to have a chance of succeeding, you might want to check out the  Foundational Webinar Series.

As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Poloz Delivers

“If you are irritated by every rub, how will you ever be polished?” – Rumi
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Mid Week Blues

“You should sit in meditation for twenty minutes a day, unless you are too busy. Then you should sit for an hour.” – Zen Proverb
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Techs in Focus

“Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he’ll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he’ll have to touch it to be sure.” – Murphy’s Law
As we have been discussing and as highlighted once again in our latest weekly outlook video, not only have markets been very complacent in pricing in geopolitical risk but tech has been really flashing all kinds of warning lights. If you are interested in our latest charts/levels for Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Facebook and Tesla, they were all posted yesterday on our twitter feed.
Here are 3 of the key charts to focus on today:

Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Weekend Risk

“The greater the demands on me, the more I need to sustain my inner calm and stability.” – bkwsu.org
A lot of headline risk today and over the weekend. Draghi, May, North Korea, New Zealand & German Elections… as usual, we favor defensive positioning into the weekend. There is very little to add to what we have been discussing these past few weeks. We are just waiting to get all our ducks in a row.
Today is shaping up to be one of those days where you could see a lot of air-pockets across teh board as most participants are in ‘wait and see mode’ in a headline driven market. A lot of the charts are still inside FOMC ranges and it will be very hard to read too much into the moves unless we get decisive breaks and holds outside these ranges. More importnatly, for a bigger pictures point of view > no change to our outlook.
Remember that risk happens fast and that picking up pennies in front of a steamroller works until it doesn’t. In this current context / environment, there is absolutely no excuse to getting caught off-guard over the weekend.

FX Chart Book Overview

“When nothing seems to help, I go and look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that last blow that did it, but all that had gone before.” – Jacob A. Riis
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Quiet before the Storm

LLOYD: “I’ll bet you 20 bucks I can get you gambling before the end of the day!?”
HARRY: “No way.”
LLOYD: “I’ll give you 3 to 1 odds?”
HARRY: “Nope.”
LLOYD: “5 to 1?”
HARRY: “Nope.”
LLOYD: “10 to 1?”
HARRY: “You’re on.”
 – Dumb and Dumber
As discussed, no surprise with seeing the euro dip bought on Draghi. Again, as we have been going on in our latest weekly outlook video and repeating this all week, the short-term focus is on potential event risk this weekend with developments in North Korea and with Hurricane Irma.
What makes this weekend particularly interesting, is not that we have any certainty that something market moving will happen but that it is anyone’s guess as to how we open on Sunday if something does happen. This means that systems/models are going to have trouble dealing with the kind of  aggressive gaps that might trigger moves outside any kind of conventional/forecastable sigma move.
The point is not to over-dramatize the situation but to make sure readers understand the implications and possible consequences of running aggressive positions over the weekend. We will discuss this in detail, along with positioning in today’s webinar session.
Good luck to all and remember that you can use the Tags or Search options on the right hand side of the blog to look up the latest charts you may be interested in reviewing.

ECB Day

“You can’t hit a home run unless you step up to the plate. You can’t catch a fish unless you put your line in the water. You can’t reach your goals if you don’t try.” – Kathy Seligman
Not wanting to sound like a broken record but as we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video the short-term focus is on potential event risk this weekend with developments in North Korea and with Hurricane Irma. Unless we get something spectacular out of the ECB today we would suspect euro to trade in the boarder range and for any dips to ultimately find buyers. Might want to keep an eye on the Bund too…
Apart form the charts we discussed in our Waiting for the Weekend post, we will been keeping a close eye on possible tactical intraday basing action on EURGBP and USDMXN.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.