’17 Thought of the Day

Waiting for the Weekend

| 50Pips
“I don’t think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.” – Richard Dennis
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video the short-term focus is on potential event risk this weekend with developments in North Korea and with Hurricane Irma. Remember that risk happens fast; it doesn’t matter until it does but at that point, the train has usually already left the station. SPX can be your guide but we would also be keeping a close eye on the RUT and action around that 50DMA.

With the BOC out today, USDCAD will clearly be on our radar. After this 10%+ correction, it will be interesting to see if we see any kind of profit taking pre/post the rate statement. Positioning is very short and the moves could be very aggressive either way with action around the 1.25 mark being pivotal.
As discussed, until we get a sustained move into and through the 18/20 area on the VIX we suspect that it’ll be business as usual.
And don’t forget to keep an eye on ZBs, things could get very sporty here too…

As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Into Labor Day Weekend

| 50Pips
“I used to try to will things to happen. My attitude was that I figured it out, therefore it can’t be wrong. What is the ultimate rationalization of an investor in a losing position? “I’ll get out when I’m even.” I became a winner when I was able to say, “To hell with my ego, making money is more important.” – Marty Schwartz
Nothing much has changed as we wait for today’s data points. As we discussed in our weekly outlook video, and yesterday’s post, we’re going to have to see how we trade into the end of the week, without forgetting that we’re going into a 3 day weekend.
We continue to contend the health of this market where we continue to see low liquidity ramps and out of sync intraday moves. However, as we like to say; it is what it is. We have to look for opportunities in the markets that we get, not the market that we would like to get.
Please note that the next weekly outlook video will be posted on Monday and depending on how we close, we’ll also review upside targets for DJI, SPX and NDX.
Wishing everyone a great break!

SNAFU

| 50Pips
“Be patient with yourself. Self-growth is tender; it’s holy ground. There’s no greater investment.” – Stephen Covey
No fear back in town as we’re back to the normal o/n low liquidity ramps that we are all too familiar with. We have discussed these in detail so suffice to say, we expect the market to be in stairs up/ elevator down mode.
The key question, along with all it implies across all asset classes is: has the DXY put in a tradable bottom for a healthy correction? As we discussed in our weekly outlook video, it would not be surprising, especially now that we have cleared the 91.90s. It’s all about action around this level and the 200WMA, the weekly close is the level to watch, especially with NFP and ISM on Friday.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

All About Levels

| 50Pips
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” – William Arthur Ward
We continue to focus on the charts and levels as we digest the tragic consequences of Hurricane Harvey and the escalation of the North Korea situation. Naturally, both situations are rapidly developing and will have key economic and geopolitical implications (weaker growth / possible fed on hold and overall risk-off portfolio positioning). However, experience tells us that what these events can do is increase the ‘velocity’ of the moves but that overall, since we are trying to keep this as simple as possible, everything we need to know is already in the charts.
Moves were already in play before Harvey and North Korea, so there is absolutely no change to what we discussed in our weekly outlook video. We don’t have a crystal ball but clearly, it’s hard to see who would want to be aggressively adding risk-on exposure, especially going into the weekend. As we like to say, sometimes the best trade on the board is the trade you are already holding. We continue to focus on long yen, long gold and short equities exposure.
It’s still a little bit early but we would suggest you start to have a look at what those monthly candles are looking like across the board but especially on the equity indices.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too). Furthermore, another great step in the right direction was achieve by the movement this week with a first Darwin reaching 1M Euro AUM.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Chart Book

| 50Pips
“It is unproductive to think that the world has been unfair to you. Every tough stretch is an opportunity.” – Charlie Munger
Here are some charts from our chart book to complement the ones we posted yesterday.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Still Waiting for Jackson Hole

| 50Pips
“The gap between what you say and what you do, between what you promise and what you deliver, is like a drain in the road. The drain is where water escapes, just as your power will seep away if there is a difference between your words and your actions. Ask yourself everyday, were your thoughts, words and actions aligned? Ask someone else what they saw in you too. Feedback is the food of all positive change.” – bkwsu.org
As we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, we’ll just have to be patient as we wait for Draghi and Yellen out of Jackson Hole on Friday. We’ll be paying attention to see if Yellen can muster up some courage and show a hawkish side instead of reverting back to her dovish nature and if Draghi will act on the continuing improving picture in europe and disappoint the status quo.
Here are some overview screens for equities, GBP and risk on/off monitor:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Waiting for Jackson Hole

| 50Pips
“Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.” – George Soros
As we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, we’ll just have to be patient as we wait for Draghi and Yellen out of Jackson Hole on Friday.
Here are some food for thought videos to help pass the time as we get closer to the end of the week.

Early Morning Outlook | 22/08/2017

| 50Pips
“The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80% as good as what we taught. What they can’t do is give (people) the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.” – Richard Dennis, on Turtle Trading
Don’t forget that updated charts are posted throughout the day on Twitter and please don’t hesitate to use the TAGS on the blog homepage to find recent posts.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Pause

| 50Pips
“We cannot see our reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.” – Taoist proverb
Tuesday and Wednesday candles in the ES are telling you where we’re at; basically, market is not sure if it’s time to book gains and get real or simply ignore everything and continue ramping…
Our base-case hasn’t changed; market is in a topping phase where charts like Dax, Nasdaq, Amazon, Google and Tesla have already topped. Market internals continue to look weak and charts like JNK, IYT, XRT and IWM are not painting a picture on strength and stamina… keep an eye on these.
As recently discussed, we’ll be keeping an eye on XLF into opening flows today. Extremely interesting chart location…
No change to what we have been discussing on the FX side, don’t forget to keep an eye on the GBPJPY swing, we’re approaching a pivotal level in the middle of the broader range we have seen for the most part of this year.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.