“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” – William Arthur Ward
We continue to focus on the charts and levels as we digest the tragic consequences of Hurricane Harvey and the escalation of the North Korea situation. Naturally, both situations are rapidly developing and will have key economic and geopolitical implications (weaker growth / possible fed on hold and overall risk-off portfolio positioning). However, experience tells us that what these events can do is increase the ‘velocity’ of the moves but that overall, since we are trying to keep this as simple as possible, everything we need to know is already in the charts.
Moves were already in play before Harvey and North Korea, so there is absolutely no change to what we discussed in our weekly outlook video. We don’t have a crystal ball but clearly, it’s hard to see who would want to be aggressively adding risk-on exposure, especially going into the weekend. As we like to say, sometimes the best trade on the board is the trade you are already holding. We continue to focus on long yen, long gold and short equities exposure.
It’s still a little bit early but we would suggest you start to have a look at what those monthly candles are looking like across the board but especially on the equity indices.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too). Furthermore, another great step in the right direction was achieve by the movement this week with a first Darwin reaching 1M Euro AUM.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.