’18 Charts

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“The main focus in my life now is to open people’s minds so no one will be so conceited that they think they have the total truth. They should be eager to learn, to listen, to research and not to confine, to hurt, to kill, those who disagree with them.” – Sir John Templeton
If you missed it, you can listen to our DXY review in our latest Outlook Video.
Markets are not looking too perky as tech continues to trade with a heavy tone. As already discussed in detail, unless we see some sustained weakness in Amazon and Apple, it will be hard to see a proper correction but we still maintain that these low liquidity ramps higher are bound to end badly, in a way that will make the VIX-debacle we saw at the start of the year look pretty tame and orderly. Remember that a lot of market commentators and participants today have ‘no concept of’ and ‘have never witnessed’ a ‘no-bid’ scenario.
Focus still remains on a lot of possible headline risk: Tariffs, NAFTA, Washington, Middle East, etc. However, as we have repeatedly said > the charts and levels hold the missing piece of the puzzle. Anything else has the potential to accelerate the ‘velocity’ of moves but the charts don’t lie and over a big enough sample, there is no reason to make things harder than they should be by not focusing on what price is telling you.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” Mark Twain
So Jeff Bezos adds a cool 67 Billion, yes with a ‘B’, to his net worth in 2018 alone as Amazon keeps on moving to new highs. No matter how you look at it, if you stop and think, this is really incredible; history is being made and we are witnessing a truly incredible bull run with Amazon and Apple leading the way. We have talked about this before and as long as these two generals don’t show weakness, it is going to be very hard for the market to correct in any meaningful way.
As discussed in our latest Outlook Video, this is going to be a key week for the USD, especially with mounting pressures in EM. Don’t forget ongoing event risk from Washington, China and NAFTA headlines.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“The minute you get away from fundamentals – whether its proper technique, work ethic or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game, your schoolwork, your job, whatever you’re doing.” – Michael Jordan
Risk continues to build across the globe with Emerging Markets leading the way. As discussed on Twitter yesterday, as long as markets continue to press higher, there is going to be no reason for the Fed to step back and as long as we are printing new highs, Trump is going to continue to feel invincible and continue to press China and Europe on the tariff side.
Keep an eye on the 7 mark in USDCNH and USDTRY. Remember that as far as USDTRY is concerned, most models highlight that Turkish banks essentially become insolvent if we print and hold inside the 7.10 to 7.50 range. If we get forced liquidations, thing are likely going to get very sporty, very quickly in European financials.
Once again, risk continue to build across the board, not only on the EM side but also on the Tech Regulations side, in the Middle East and with the Muller Investigation. Markets will continue to do what they have to but we would definitely not want to be going into this labor day weekend being Long Risk.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trade, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision.” – Helen Keller
Markets continue to grind higher as we move towards month end and the labor day weekend. No big change to what we discussed on Tuesday and in our latest latest outlook video.
Despite the fact that we can easily see markets really getting one-sided, especially in this last week of the low liquidity summer doldrums, headlines risk is building and it could really cause havoc in this kind of context. Our focus remains on Washington with every increasing risk on the tech regulation front and on NAFTA as we move into this Friday deadline.
Experienced traders are very familiar with the fact that, as Keynes said, markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent but this doesn’t mean that we should ignore the context and risks.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trade, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.” – Leo Tolstoy
No change from yesterday’s blog post and our latest latest outlook video.
We favor not reading too much into this summer / month end chop, taking a step back and focusing on the higher time-frames. As we have been highlighting, the weekly charts are attempting to get the new moves started and the monthly closes will have to confirm if the moves are likely to get real sustain traction.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trade, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.” – Steve Jobs
As we have been discussing since the previous video and as highlighted once again in our latest outlook, our focus will remain on the DXY as we head into the end of the month and the Labor Day long weekend.
Remember that positioning is very one-sided on a lot of the pairs and you really want to be cautious about not getting caught fighting flows in a waive of covering. If interested, we posted the GOLD, NZDUSD and USDCHF charts on our twitter feed yesterday.
With respect to equities, there is very little to comment on > it’s a grind/squeeze higher until it isn’t… focus is all on follow-through and if markets can attract new buyers at highs. As always with these kind of moves, the key is riding the move but understanding that sooner or later there will be an exhaustion of buyers and you do not want to end up being the last bagholder.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trade, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class – and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond – and it terrifies them.” – Hugh Hendry
As we wait for Powell to deliver his Jackson Hole speech, the most interesting dynamic remains post earning weakness and price action in a lot of the big tech names across the globe. We continue to maintain that it all started with Netflix and that the NQ is really weakening below the surface.
The other key focus remains the DXY where we stand by what we discussed in our Latest Weekly Outlook video. Remember to keep an eye on gold into the end of the month.
One last reminder that the Early Bird offer for the new Video Updates service will be taken down this weekend. If you have any questions on this service, please do not hesitate to use to the contact form to get in touch.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.” – Warren Buffett
Not going to sugarcoat it; markets are struggling to get any real traction. This kind of action tends to be pretty frustrating for traders and tends to tempt us to do silly things. It’s really important to stick to your set-ups / rules and stay as detached as possible from the action. The key is always to try and be as mechanical as possible in everything we do. Yes, I know; easier said than done 😉 Having said this, as discussed in our Latest Weekly Outlook video, there are very interesting dynamics in play and we just have to be patient as markets try to navigate around tariff headlines and the Trump-Manford-Cohen debacle.
Main focus today, as equities continue to chop around at highs, is going to be if the DXY resumes the recently started correction.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
ICYMI (offer will end this week) >Video Updates: Early Bird. If you have any questions on this service, please do not hesitate to use to the contact form to get in touch.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“A moment of choice is a moment of truth. It’s the testing point of our character and competence.” – Stephen Cove
No change to what we discussed in our Latest Weekly Outlook video. Our main focus remains on the DXY and developments out of the Trump-Manford-Cohen debacle.
For the DXY view, it’s all about those weekly reversals across the board, the extremes have been set, we just have to wait and see if they hold and moves get traction. As far as equities are concerned, it’s all about developments out of Washington and possible twitter bombs… this is far from being over.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
ICYMI (offer will end this week) >Video Updates: Early Bird. If you have any questions on this service, please do not hesitate to use to the contact form to get in touch.
Wishing you a great day ahead.