“Many people don’t focus enough on execution. If you make a commitment to get something done, you need to follow through on that commitment.” – Kenneth Chenault
’18 Charts
Chart of the Day
“Body is visible in a mirror. But character is visible in actions.” – bkwsu.org
Apart from the open in tech and the recent shenanigans in USDCNH, don’t forget to keep an eye on the bonds as we move into the busy part of the week in terms of the economic calendar.
As we have been discussing, it will be every interesting to see how we trade into the end of the month with the likely tug-of-war between earnings ramps and upcoming QT, basically the reduction in the Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA).
Sorry but unfortunately, still no way of posting a weekly outlook video due to the fact that I am still struggling with my voice. Fingers crossed for next week at the very latest.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“Without numbers, there are no odds and no probabilities; without odds and probabilities, the only way to deal with risk is to appeal to the gods and the fates. Without numbers, risk is wholly a matter of gut.” – Peter L. Bernstein
If case you missed our post with some of the most important charts we will be discussing/reviewing this week, you can access it > here.
It should be an interesting week as we still see no hint of Geo-political or Geo-economic risk easing (China, Iran, etc..).
One of the main focuses this week will be the euro with not only a lot of data on the calendar but also, with Junker in Washington on Wednesday and Super Mario in the house on Thursday.
Let’s see of euro can hold this 1.15 support and take a stab at the 1.1850 zone…
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Some Charts for the Week
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great week ahead.
Chart of the Day
“Some people are always grumbling because roses have thorns; I am thankful that thorns have roses.” – Alphonse Karr
As we discussed in yesterday’s session, the main development was the cocaine-angel ramp action on USDCNH. It was only a matter of time before someone pointed it out to President Trump and our focus was to position short on USDJPY and USDCHF. Don’t forget to keep an eye on the $SHCOMP and the USDCNH. Remember that the full Trump interview will be out today at 6 AM EST.
Once again, we are going to sound like a broken record but the market is extremely complacent and completely ignoring Geo-political and Geo-economic risk. As you should know, this usually ends with the velocity of move being to the downside; stairs up and elevator down.
Another thing we have been focused on in the sessions is how we are using Netflix as our overall barometer for current market action and the topping process. Our base-case remains that there is a good chance that some kind of a top is already in and that the NQ is just the last man standing and being a bit difficult. If indeed we are going to correct across the board, NFLX was the tell and if not already short on one of those two gap downs, the play was to sell the 50back of the latest bigger gap-down. More on this in today’s session…
No change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, and as always, keep an eye on the Twitter Feed for updated charts and commentary.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“I learned how to play poker at a very young age. My father taught me the concept of playing the percentage hands. You don’t just play every hand and stay through every card, because if you do, you will have a much higher probability of losing. You should play the good hands, and drop out of the poor hands, forfeiting the ante. When more of the cards are on the table and you have a very strong hand — in other words, when you feel the percentages are skewed in your favor — you raise and play that hand to the hilt. If you apply the same principles of poker strategy to trading, it increases your odds of winning significantly. I have always tried to keep the concept of patience in mind by waiting for the right trade, just like you wait for the percentage hand in poker. If a trade doesn’t look right, you get out and take a small loss; it’s precisely equivalent to forfeiting the ante by dropping out of a poor hand in poker. On the other hand, when the percentages seem to be strongly in your favor, you should be aggressive and really try to leverage the trade similar to the way you raise on the good hands in poker.” – Gary Bielfeldt
DXY remains a key piece of the puzzle and one of the most important charts to keep on the radar. It’s all about how we trade here at the 95s as we see the majors in key zone and attempting reversals. As discussed, day closes are interesting but we really have to see how we close the week and potentially the month. It’s a tricky zone prone to sending a lot of mixed messages.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on bonds today. Should get interesting…
No change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, and as always, keep an eye on the Twitter Feed for updated charts and commentary.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Note for active 50Scouts members: webinar session pass postponed to next week.
Chart of the Day
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” – Winston S. Churchill
Dip buyers were at it again yesterday as the shenanigans continue on yen and gold. As we have been discussing and not to sound like a broken record, the markets are being extremely complacent here. This does not mean that they can’t trade higher but it means that the real ‘velocity of move’ risk is to the downside. Having said that, even if our base case still remains that we should trade sideways to heavy into the end of the month, we are very much aware of the fact that there is a distinct possibility of a melt-up squeeze, especially in the NQ as it hovers around all time highs.
Today we will discuss and review the Netflix chart in detail once again and discuss how it will likely be key in understanding hot strong yesterday’s moves really were and if indeed they can get traction.
No change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, and as always, keep an eye on the Twitter Feed for updated charts and commentary.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“We live in a fantasy world, a world of illusion. The great task in life is to find reality.” – Iris Murdoch
No change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, and as always, keep an eye on the Twitter Feed for updated charts and commentary.
All and only about Netflix today. Apart from repeatedly banging the drum on the fact that markets are being extremely complacent, we have been highlighting Netflix action into and post earning as a potential key catalyst for market action into the end of the month and a traditionally weaker period for equities. Bears have a real chance to get some traction and they have to keep pressure on today post the likely big gap down open. The story is developing and it’s all about follow-through and a potential domino effect.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
SPX in Context
“I think investment psychology is by far the more important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.” – Tom Basso
