“I think investment psychology is by far the more important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.” – Tom Basso
Just wanted to put out a short post in response to a wave of comments/questions regarding when we will break out to new highs and why we are not getting long equities and why we sound so cautious.
With all these headlines and constant news flow, it’s important to step back and make sure we have a good understanding for where markets are: essentially, we are going nowhere.
We could easily highlight the shorter-term move and the series of higher highs and higher lows since the April low but the bigger point is that the market is still inside the January/February correction area. As we said back then, we would not be surprised if the market stayed stuck inside this range for the better part of the year. However, the other more salient point is that, as Geo-economic and Geo-political risks keep on building up, it is really hard to find a reason/justification for why we should beak and hold above the all time high.
As always, context is key and for now, this is still just one big trading range. We’ll discuss trading ranges and how we like to engage in them in more detail in one of our upcoming update videos.