“Some people are always grumbling because roses have thorns; I am thankful that thorns have roses.” – Alphonse Karr
As we discussed in yesterday’s session, the main development was the cocaine-angel ramp action on USDCNH. It was only a matter of time before someone pointed it out to President Trump and our focus was to position short on USDJPY and USDCHF. Don’t forget to keep an eye on the $SHCOMP and the USDCNH. Remember that the full Trump interview will be out today at 6 AM EST.
Once again, we are going to sound like a broken record but the market is extremely complacent and completely ignoring Geo-political and Geo-economic risk. As you should know, this usually ends with the velocity of move being to the downside; stairs up and elevator down.
Another thing we have been focused on in the sessions is how we are using Netflix as our overall barometer for current market action and the topping process. Our base-case remains that there is a good chance that some kind of a top is already in and that the NQ is just the last man standing and being a bit difficult. If indeed we are going to correct across the board, NFLX was the tell and if not already short on one of those two gap downs, the play was to sell the 50back of the latest bigger gap-down. More on this in today’s session…