’18 Thought of the Day

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“In essence, if we want to direct our lives, we must take control of our consistent actions. It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives, but what we do consistently.” – Tony Robbins
Another key day in the markets as the Shanghai Composite bounce is fading. If you missed if, please check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video. We covered the main themes for the week and there is very little to add so far.
Remember to keep an eye on USDCNH as that will be one of the main intraday drivers of momo and flows, especially in relation to the metals. It’s a key piece of the puzzle and as we have been discussing, of the virtuous chain-reaction across asset-classes. More on all this in the webinar into NY open.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“But the real object of the Game is not the money, it is the playing of the Game itself. For the true players, you could take all the trophies away and substitute plastic beads or whale’s teeth; as long as there is a way to keep score, they will play.” – George Goodman (aka Adam Smith), “The Money Game”
Netflix is a great example of what we are currently witnessing; a weakening market that is still fighting but ultimately, very tired. We will discuss this kind of action in detail during today’s session but the bottom line is that we are sticking with the call we made in July > Netflix has topped and we are using this for our control chart for the overall market.
Keep in mind that we will likely see a lot of chop and volatile action in EUR and GBP due to Italy and Brexit and that related currency moves could lead to a lot of head-fakes but also interesting opportunities. In terms of the bigger picture, we would be a lot more focused on action in USDCNH (shorter-term) and USDJPY (longer-term).
As already discussed and reviewed, remember that there is a big difference between a scenario where we have Stocks Down/Bonds Down and one where we have Stocks Down/Bonds up… more on this in the video updates and the session.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“You don’t win once in a while, you don’t do things right once in a while, you do them right all the time. Winning is habit.” – Vince Lombardi
Yesterday’s range is  equities is going to be key. It’s going to be important for the bulls to get above it and hold the break into the end of the week to keep the positive momo. On the other hand, the bears need to get below and hold below. It may seem trivial but these levels are pivotal for a number of reasons. We will discuss more in today’s session.
As we have been highlighting, remember to keep an eye on USDCNH. It’s the key piece of the puzzle in order to understand current action in the metals and DXY.
Make sure you catch up on our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.” – Vince Lombardi
As w have warned, even if we are in a bear market or a prolonged correction, rallies can and will likely be very vicious. It’s all about follow-through and how we react at key levels now. In today’s session, we will go through these levels and structural resistances in more detail.
Interestingly enough, the Shanghai Composite just printed new lows and other asset classes remain muted despite yesterday’s action in US markets. Needless to say, things can stay out of whack and divergences can easily extend but still it’s worth keeping an eye on this and CNH too.
Going into the FOMC minutes remember to keep an eye on Bonds and the USD… that ZB/DXY split screen will be key for cycles across the board.
Make sure you catch up on our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“I attribute my success to my mental approach to the game. I have always been a serious student… I enjoy studying rules, situations, and positioning. ” – Jim Evans
Still a lot of headline risk as we hover around key levels across the board. We’ll likely see a lot of two-sided action this week but the focus will be on where we close.
Make sure you catch up on our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Key Weekly Close

| 50Pips
“If the problem has a solution, worrying is pointless, in the end the problem will be solved. If the problem has no solution, there is no reason to worry, because it can’t be solved.” – Zen Proverb
For the shorter-term cycles, all that really matters is how we close the week. We will have plenty to review and discuss both today and in our upcoming weekly outlook but for now, these are the levels to keep an eye on.

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Outlook

| 50Pips
“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.” – Aldous Huxley
Just to put things in context, SPX off just over 5% from ATH. Not even a proper ‘correction’ yet.
As expected, the damage is appearing in Tech after we started to break with the first earnings gap downs a while ago but still, all things being equal, not that ugly. Blog readers are very familiar with all these breakdowns we have been reviewing for a long time: Netflix, FaceBook, Tencent, Alibaba and so on.
Remember that playing for markets to move in straight lines (on either side) is not a repeatable long-term way to build a solid track-record. Focus on the levels and structure. Especially when things start to move, it’s important to stick to basics and keep a very calm head.
All things being equal, one would expect to see some kind of sharp corrective rally at some point but that could be after an ugly open. In the current scenario, things should get worse before they get better and we’ll very likely be in ‘sell-rally’ mode unless something big hits the wires.
Keep in mind that expectation is for aggressive moves in either direction as the bigger patterns/move play out. As always, it’ll be imperative to stay nimble if trying to be aggressive on either side from here on.
In any case, this is where things get interesting / more strategic as experienced traders get really focused and have a real chance to deliver / perform. may it continue until year end.
If you are confused by the recent action, feel free to look back at some of the latest blog posts, along with the recent weekly outlook video and free access webinar session we posted that may help give you a better understanding of what is going on an how we see things playing out.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“Every debt is ultimately paid, if not by the debtor, then eventually by the creditor.” – James Grant
The key dynamics we will continue to focus on ad discuss remain: US/Worlds Markets, overall sector rotations, CNH/GOLD, NIKKEI/JPY, Crude and overall market breadth.
Make sure you check out out latest Weekly Outlook Video. We covered and referenced a lot…
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Charts of the Day

| 50Pips
“There’s a big difference between probability and outcome. Probable things fail to happen-and improbable things happen-all the time.” – Howard Marks
Key week shaping up as we continue to hold key inflection points across the board. China came back from golden week and as expected, markets are trading heavy. Japan came back from the bank holiday and as expected, markets continue to trade heavy and today we’ll have to see what the Bonds do following Columbus Day. All-in-all we would expect to see a bit of a pause across the board but untimely, more follow-though to come in.
Make sure you check out out latest Weekly Outlook Video. We covered and referenced a lot…
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.