“Soros is the best loss taker I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn’t work, he’s confident enough about his ability to win on other trades. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear only the ones that fit. If you’re extremely confident, taking a loss doesn’t bother you.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
’18 Thought of the Day
Key Weekly Closes
“Unless commitment is made there are only promises and hopes, but no plans.” – Peter Drucker
Markets continue to hover at key inflection points as the misinformation continues with a very biased news feed.
Despite all the wheeling and dealing, DXY and therefore the Euro, remain stuck in a range, whilst the really interesting action started in the metals and is slowly moving into the equity space. Keep an eye on how the metals continue to trade and how they manage to tackle the all too common ‘Whac-A-Mole’ attempts that we continue to see at the all too usual times.
Last week started with the focus on what was shaping up in the metals complex. We started this week focusing on individual sector performance, then we reviewed the action FANGs and today we will drill down on the Yen and the Nikkei.
As already discussed, we are hovering around key inflection points across the board and the weekly closes will likely provide very important clues on how the next roations will play out.
ICYMI, please check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.
Key Inflection Point
“I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw
After focusing on drilling down on individual sector performance, today’s video and webinar will be focused on the tech space. There are a lot of interesting dynamics trying to play out this week as we head into NFP.
ICYMI, please check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Post FOMC Action
“Trading is very simple; either you make money or you don’t make money. I wasn’t depending on anyone else. When you work for someone else, if you make money somebody gives you a bonus and if you lose money, somebody else pays your salary. When I was working for myself, it was the ultimate meritocracy, I was worth exactly what I made, no more, no less.” – David Kyte
As we head into final GDP data, Draghi, Powell and Poloz, the focus will be on how markets and flows settle into the end of the week, month and quarter. As tempting as it may be to jump to conclusions following FOMC, the reality is that markets still need to settle and digest yesterday’s statement. We know that this process usually takes 24/48 hour, especially in the current context of very heavy headline flows.
In today’s session, we will review and detail our base-case scenario on Tech and the Russell.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Waiting for FOMC
“Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferable one that is also sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That to me, is the epitome of professional trading.” – Mark Weinstein
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video and yesterday’s blog post we are in wait and see mode. We can’t stress this enough > remember that it’s also month-end / quarter-end so what really matters is how we settle into the end of the week.
It’s always hard to be patient and not read too much into action pre these kind of events but it’s key to avoid getting chopped up and not having any power dry for when it’s really needed.
Remember to take a step back and look at the bigger picture and how price reacts at key levels / inflection points. It is very easy to get stuck in your own views and not see what is really happening. Price tends to do a really good job at telling us what is happening and we have to be ready to internalize price action and act accordingly without hesitation and bias.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Morning Update
“The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80% as good as what we taught. What they can’t do is give (people) the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.” – Richard Dennis, on Turtle Trading
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, this week is all about the Fed. Furthermore, don’t forget that we’ll have to deal with month-end and quarter-end flows so don’t be surprised if trading gets a bit funky into the end of the week.
We are at key levels across the board so our expectation would be for choppy fake-out action as liquidity is sucked out of the system into the FOMC / Press conference and then for the market to find direction in the following 24/48 hours.
Our focus remains on the current DXY move. The key tell on this latest move will be if we get the usual firmness into the expected rate-hike that fades post release. We’ll be watching closely with an eye on possible opportunities opening up in the metals complex too.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Charts of the Day
“Do not permit the events of your daily life to bind you, but never withdraw yourself from them.” – Zen Proverb
Markets remain in grind higher mode as we wait for the last trading session of the week. There is very little edge in trying to fade these steady grinds, especially into quadruple witching.
Remember that today usually results in one of the most active trading days of the year. Furthermore, we will also see S&P and MSCI proceed to the re-classification/re-categorization of information technology and communications sectors and don’t forget that we usually to see tape bombs hit the wires in the latter part of these Friday sessions.
Could end up being a fairly sporty day…
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Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” – Mark Twain
As discussed in the past and highlighted again in yesterday’s post, remember to keep an eye on the whole commodity complex. Our focus remains on Gold and the antipodean currencies, notably NZDUSD due to the very one-sided positioning. Furthermore, also in yesterday’s post, don’t forget to keep an eye on bonds. As usual, they don’t matter until they do. There could be a lot of collateral damage-snowball effect should we accelerate through yearly lows / rip through yearly high in yields, in a disorderly fashion.
ICYMI, you can check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“You have to take risks. We will only understand the miracle of life fully when we allow the unexpected to happen.” – Paulo Coelho
More of the same as wait for Mr. Market to sustain a serious move in either direction.
Interesting to note in the o/n session; China comments on them having no interest in currency manipulation and that this would actually be counterproductive. Keep an eye on USDCNH as this has been a key driver of recent moves, not only in the FX complex but also in the metals. If we continue to see an unwind, especially sub 6.70s, then we could really see GOLD and Commodity currencies get some upside traction.
ICYMI, you can check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
