Waiting for Trump

“I don’t think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.” – Richard Dennis
Short-term, it’s all about the announcement on the Iran deal at 2:00 PM EST today. No change to the latest weekly outlook video. We’ll just have to be patient…
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“The gap between what you say and what you do, between what you promise and what you deliver, is like a drain in the road. The drain is where water escapes, just as your power will seep away if there is a difference between your words and your actions. Ask yourself everyday, were your thoughts, words and actions aligned? Ask someone else what they saw in you too. Feedback is the food of all positive change.” – bkwsu.org
Heads up for a lot of headline risk on Crude today out of the JMMC in Jeddah. No real change to the bigger picture discussed in out latest Weekly Outlook Video.
Remember; Bulls, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered. As we get closer to the end of the April it is important to remember that despite the fact that it has been a very good month so far in terms of setup and opportunities, in the long-run, it pays to stick to the plan and not get distracted by the action. Today’s session will focus on this and managing open positions whilst being aggressive with ‘house money’ without increasing exposure.
We would suggest you also keep a close eye on the whole fixed income complex and take a look at the sustained heavy action on the Shanghai Composite.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts in Focus

“Challenges are what make life interesting; overcoming them is what makes life meaningful.” – Joshua J. Marine
Bigger picture discussed in out latest Weekly Outlook Video.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts in Focus

“Stopping out of a position may give the appearance of defeat, but it is not meant to necessarily signal total defeat. While others may see it that way, you must never be fooled. Stopping out of losing positions is the only sure way to maintain survival in difficult conflicts and to achieve the complete victory that is your aim. To learn how to live to fight another day is the best advice that all traders can be given. Not only is it the smart thing to do, but in the long run, the prevention of injury will act as a major building block of total victory. The warrior trader retreats not just to fight another day, but to fight a better day.” – Clifford Bennett
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Event-Risk

“If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable.” – Seneca
Once again, as discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video; we are still seeing a lot of ‘velocity of move’ inside recent ranges. Our base case has not changed and recent action in GC/JPY/CHF may indeed be the tell on what is coming.
Here are some key charts we will be focusing on today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Headline Risk

“It’s repetition of affirmations that leads to belief and once that belief becomes a deep conviction, things begin to happen.” – Muhammad Ali
No change to what we have been discussing. Market is still facing a lot of headwinds and we still have a lot of headline risk. We will update out thoughts and analysis in the Sunday Video.

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Buying Time

RESOLVE: Banish uncertainty. Affirm strength. Hold resolve. Expect death.
Make your stand today. On this spot. On this day. Make your actions count; do not falter in your determination to fulfill your destiny. Don’t follow the destiny outlined in some mystical book: Create your own.
Your resolve to tread the path of life is your best asset. Without it, you die. Death is unavoidable, but let it not be from loss of will but because your time is over. As long as you can keep going, use your imagination to cope with the travails of life. Overcome your obstacles and realize what you envision.
You will know unexpected happiness. You will know the sorrow of seeing what is dearest to you cut down before your eyes. Accept that. That is the nature of human existence, and you have no time to buffer this fact with fairy tales and illogical explanations.
Each day, your life grows shorter by twenty-four hours. The time to make achievements becomes more precious. You must fulfill everything you want in life and then release your will upon the moment of death. Your life is a creation that dies when you die. Release it, give up your individuality, and in so doing, finally merge completely with Tao.
Until that moment, create the poetry of your life with toughness and
determination.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
No big change to what we have been discussing. The main issue remains that broadly speaking, we are stuck and waiting for a catalyst. The SPX chart is probably the best one to look at to highlight this:
As you can see, DXY is also stuck, as discussed in out latest weekly outlook video.
Our most interesting swing chart (Crude), is finally getting some traction and it may actually hold the key to other asset classes finally starting to get some traction too:
If you had to only look at one level today, then it would have to be the 7000 mark on Nasdaq:
Always worth keeping an eye on:
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting Game

POSITIONING: Heron stands in the blue estuary, Solitary, white, unmoving for hours. A fish! Quick avian darting; The prey captured.
People always ask how to follow Tao. It is as easy and natural as the heron standing in the water. The bird moves when it must; it does not move when stillness is appropriate.
The secret of its serenity is a type of vigilance, a contemplative state. The heron is not in mere dumbness or sleep. It knows a lucid stillness. It stands unmoving in the flow of the water. It gazes unperturbed and is aware. When Tao brings it something that it needs, it seizes the opportunity without hesitation or deliberation. Then it goes back to its quiescence without disturbing itself or its surroundings. Unless it found the right position in the water’s flow and remained patient, it would not have succeeded.
Actions in life can be reduced to two factors: positioning and timing. If we are not in the right place at the right time, we cannot possibly take advantage of what life has to offer us. Almost anything is appropriate if an action is in accord with the time and the place. But we must be vigilant and prepared. Even if the time and the place are right, we can still miss our chance if we do not notice the moment, if we act inadequately, or if we hamper ourselves with doubts and second thoughts. When life presents an opportunity, we must be ready to seize it without hesitation or inhibition. Position is useless without awareness. If we have both, we make no mistakes.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
As we discussed yesterday, we just have to wait and see how these chop ranges resolve. As the market digests news out of Washington, we still have to get through BOC, ECB, BOJ and NFP.
If you missed our latest video update, you can access it here > weekly outlook video. Make sure you keep an eye on crude; a hold below the 62.50s continues to suggest a return to the 55 mark.
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart Book

“The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
We got some very nice intraday action yesterday across the board. As expected, the cleanest opportunity in terms of location, technicals and context was around the 7k level on NQ for a retest of previous day lows and thanks to Powell, very similar setups triggered on YM and ES too with failures at previous day highs. The focus now is going to be on how we trade into month and and if we can get some follow-through.
As we have been discussing, other points of interest will be: indices in Asia and Europe (they have been holding heavy), DXY momo (crucial for current moves to stick) and CL on EIA today (key weekly level).
Here are soe of the charts we will be going through today:
If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.