“Magnitude of losses and profits is purely a matter of position size. Controlling position size is indispensable to success. Of all the traits necessary to trade successfully, this factor is the most under-valued.” – Mark Ritchie
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Morning Update
“It is only when we truly know and understand that we don’t know … and had no way of knowing, that we know we have to find out what we don’t know.” – Marshall J. Jones
All about headline risk with US/CHina and Powell on deck 3 out of 5 days. The key questions remains if this China Trade Deal is just going to be one big Buy the Rumor and Sell the News event.
The big questions traders have to ask themselves are: what has changed since the December sell-off (data and guidance actually deteriorating) and what are the chances that any deal is a real and substantial game-changer (not very high).
As always, we remain open to any kind of move, remembering that markets can remain irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent but we continue to believe that markets remain extremely complacent as the o/n ramps continue…
ICYMI please read up on the upcoming addition to the 50 on Markets Video Service.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Post FOMC Chart Update
“I find it fascinating that most people plan their vacations with better care than they do their lives. Perhaps that is because escape is easier than change. “ – Jim Rohn
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing and reviewing today in the webinar session. Will also try to update some extra ones on the Twitter Feed.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Charts of the Day
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Major Markets Weekly
“Success seems to be connected to action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don’t quit.” – Conrad Hilton
Here are the weekly charts for the 5 major markets as we start this new year.
Please remember that this week should still be treated as a lower liquidity holiday week. Furthermore, due to the current US government shutdown, it is still unclear if the scheduled economic data releases will go ahead as planned.
Essentially, we are right back where we left off at the end of 2018: a lot of complacency, uncertainty and plenty of headline risk.
Wishing everyone a great 2019! Remember to be realistic with your expectations, trade responsibly and focus on the bigger picture; this is a marathon, not a sprint.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Early Morning Update
“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
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Nikkei and USDJPY breakdown, range and inflection point.
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Bigger picture Bull/Bear lines in ES/NQ/YM/RTY.
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GOLD $ DXY.
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EURUSD 1.13 rotation + seasonal pattern.
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ZB cyclical support inside chop zone.
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SPX still in range.
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NDX key inflection point.
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Crude, the 200WMA and waiting for OPEC.
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead
Charts of the Day
“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt
No big change from our Latest Weekly Outlook Video. The focus remains on headline risk and what will come out of the G20 this weekend. Nothing else matter short-term…
Here are some of the key charts to keep an eye on:
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“Success is as dangerous as failure. Hope is as hollow as fear.” – Lao Tzu
Our latest post with a collection of Key Charts remains very much in play as we move into the last trading week of the month.
Remember to keep in mind that we have a lot of headline risk this week, not only from scheduled data releases but also from Russia, China, Italy, Brexit, Opec and a host of Central Banks.
Don’t forget to keep and eye on Commodities and Credit for clues…
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Charts of the Day
“Fill your bowl to the brim and it will spill. Keep sharpening your knife and it will blunt. Chase after money and security and your heart will never unclench. Care about people’s approval and you will be their prisoner. Do your work, then step back. The only path to serenity.” – Lao Tzu
If you missed it, you can take a look at our > Latest Weekly Outlook Video.
Here are some of the charts we will be reviewing and discussing today:
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Crude still under pressure and into KEY support > CL_F Daily
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Dollar still looking for direction into this sloppy resistance zone > DXY Weekly
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Germany still not looking pretty. Swing in play and we have now given back 2 years of free money stimulus > DAX Weekly
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As discussed Tech broke back in July with Netflix and the repricing is in play > NQ_F Daily
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The Generals did a very good job at paving the way to the upside, so it’s only natural that they do the same to the downside > FANG Daily
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Still stuck inside the yearly range and no change in outlook; we expect yearly lows to be revisited > SPX Daily
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As we have been discussing since 2017, Junk is really painting an ugly picture. ignore at your own peril > JNK Weekly