All about the Fed

“For better or worse we’re a herd leader. We’re at the front of the pack, we are one of the first movers. First movers are interesting, you get to the good grass first, or sometimes the lion eats you.” – David Tepper
If you missed our latest video updates > Weekly Outlook Video & NQ Update.
Today we are going to review and discuss the latest bond moves and what they mean for the broader market and the usd complex. Here are some of the key charts we are focused on at the moment:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Focus on DXY

LLOYD: “I’ll bet you 20 bucks I can get you gambling before the end of the day!?”
HARRY: “No way.”
LLOYD: “I’ll give you 3 to 1 odds?”
HARRY: “Nope.”
LLOYD: “5 to 1?”
HARRY: “Nope.”
LLOYD: “10 to 1?”
HARRY: “You’re on.”
 – Dumb and Dumber
No change to the latest weekly outlook video. Today we’ll focus on 3 key charts and how their relationship is key for future cyclical moves.
1. The bulls are in control on the equity side as the squeeze continues > key test here on the ES at the 2700 pivotal level in this broader chop zone:

2. DXY is still in a grind higher mode, clipping upside stops but starting to stall:

3. Gold has been trying to flush weak longs but keeps on showing signs of trying to base and coil:

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

FX Overview

“Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he’ll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he’ll have to touch it to be sure.” – Murphy’s Law
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for ECB

“Peace ends when you are emotionally involved in a situation. The practice of being an detached observer helps you stay stable and calm. It is the best way to approach a decision in any circumstance.” – bkwsu.org
In case you missed our thoughts for the week > Outlook Video.
Remember that when we have slow data weeks with ECB/BOJ meetings stacked at the back end of the week, the focus is on how we ‘end the week’ not on the action into the meetings. As most reasoned traders will know, there is very little edge in trying to fade drifts into these meeting, especially when the are structural unwinds. Today we will focus on how to position and take advantage of this kind of context.
Here is one of the most important charts on the board (not going to post the chart of the 10 year yield knocking on 3% as everyone is probably sick and tired of seeing it):

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts in Focus

“Stopping out of a position may give the appearance of defeat, but it is not meant to necessarily signal total defeat. While others may see it that way, you must never be fooled. Stopping out of losing positions is the only sure way to maintain survival in difficult conflicts and to achieve the complete victory that is your aim. To learn how to live to fight another day is the best advice that all traders can be given. Not only is it the smart thing to do, but in the long run, the prevention of injury will act as a major building block of total victory. The warrior trader retreats not just to fight another day, but to fight a better day.” – Clifford Bennett
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Event-Risk

“If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable.” – Seneca
Once again, as discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video; we are still seeing a lot of ‘velocity of move’ inside recent ranges. Our base case has not changed and recent action in GC/JPY/CHF may indeed be the tell on what is coming.
Here are some key charts we will be focusing on today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Headline Risk

“It’s repetition of affirmations that leads to belief and once that belief becomes a deep conviction, things begin to happen.” – Muhammad Ali
No change to what we have been discussing. Market is still facing a lot of headwinds and we still have a lot of headline risk. We will update out thoughts and analysis in the Sunday Video.

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Long Weekend

“The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
No change to our latest weekly outlook video as we move into the end of the week, month and quarter. Keep in mind that fighting flows is a hard way to spend your time, especially if you are doing it into quarter-end re-balancing. Keep the bigger picture in mind, understand the context, be patient and don’t make it harder than it should be.
DXY is still stuck and until we get a sustained break there is likely little edge trying to get aggressive on Crude or Gold. The focus remains on equities…
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Big J in da House

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” – Warren Buffett
Very busy day ahead. Focus will be on positioning and squaring as we wait for FOMC. Remember that there will be a lot for the market to digest, not only in terms of what will be announced today but also for how to price/adapt to the future outlook.
Here are some of the key charts that we will be discussing/analyzing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.