Morning Update

“It is only when we truly know and understand that we don’t know … and had no way of knowing, that we know we have to find out what we don’t know.” – Marshall J. Jones

All about headline risk with US/CHina and Powell on deck 3 out of 5 days. The key questions remains if this China Trade Deal is just going to be one big Buy the Rumor and Sell the News event.
The big questions traders have to ask themselves are: what has changed since the December sell-off (data and guidance actually deteriorating) and what are the chances that any deal is a real and substantial game-changer (not very high).
As always, we remain open to any kind of move, remembering that markets can remain irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent but we continue to believe that markets remain extremely complacent as the o/n ramps continue…
ICYMI please read up on the upcoming addition to the 50 on Markets Video Service.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

EOW Update


“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality — but reality as distorted by a misconception. Under normal conditions misconceptions are self-correcting, and the markets tend toward some kind of equilibrium. Occasionally, a misconception is reinforced by a trend prevailing in reality, and that is when a boom-bust process gets under way. Eventually the gap between reality and its false interpretation becomes unsustainable, and the bubble bursts.” – George Soros

No change to our recent discussions and bigger picture outlook. As we discussed yesterday, we have to be patient and let things play out especially post FOMC as we know that markets like to wait 24/48h before picking a direction.
Apart from the continued focus on how the indices react around our key bull/bear lines and the 200DMAs, today’s close will give us another important piece of information though the weekly candle closes.
Remember that we have a whole host of FOMC Members and Draghi speaking today so, on top of the usual US/CHina + Brexit headline risk, we will have to deal with the CBs too.
ICYMI, Here is our update charts/thread from yesterday > read on Twitter and please read up on the upcoming addition to the 50 on Markets Video Service.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Patience

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore

we have to be patient post FOMC as markets usually take 24/48 hour to settle and pick a direction. We have attached the update FANG and DXY charts along with our latest Outlook Video as nothing much has really changed.
Here is our update charts/thread pre the minutes > read on Twitter.
ICYMI, read up on the upcoming addition to the 50 on Markets Video Service.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Again, Eyes on Tech

“If you look around, complacency is the great disease of your autumn years, and I work hard to prevent that.” – Nick Cave

As highlighted in yesterday’s post, Tech is at a key turning point and despite the general grind higher in the markets, FANG+ names were starting to look tired and unable to really follow the press higher. We reiterate out call for a pause and the start of a retracement from these levels. Furthermore, we continue to stick with our unpopular call for weaker USD and will continue to discuss this along with recent intraday action in the metals in today’s webinar session.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“I have seen many storms in my life. Most storms have caught me by surprise, so I had to learn very quickly to look further and understand that I am not capable of controlling the weather, to exercise the art of patience and to respect the fury of nature.” – Paulo Coelho

As we have been discussing, technically, DXY is still stuck in a range and likely waiting for more significant breakthrough on the data / central bank side. Our base-case remains that it will continue to be very choppy inside this range but our gut-feel is telling us that this is ultimately setting up a ‘bull-trap’. We’ll review this in detail along with various scenarios in today’s webinar session.
If you missed it, you can always catch up on our > Latest Outlook Video.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Monday Morning Update

“The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements.” – Jesse Livermore

Here are 3 key charts to keep an eye on into the new week. Non-Subscribers will get more detail on these when we unlock access to the Weekly Outlook Video tomorrow.
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Wishing you a great week ahead.

Post FOMC Chart Update

“I find it fascinating that most people plan their vacations with better care than they do their lives.  Perhaps that is because escape is easier than change. “ – Jim Rohn

Here are some of the charts we will be discussing and reviewing today in the webinar session. Will also try to update some extra ones on the Twitter Feed.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.” – Jesse Livermore

The low liquidity chop continues to be driven by CB policy and headline risk as we start to settle into the main part of this earning season. As usual, it’s very hard to call this kind of action, all we can do is continue to focus on some of the key dynamics driving the bigger picture view and levels. For the time being, we would continue to focus on intraday action in: financials, crude and the vix. More on this in today’s session…
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Wishing everyone a great weekend ahead.