“I’m not telling you it’s going to be easy – I’m telling you it’s going to be worth it.” – Art Williams
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On the Radar
“Magnitude of losses and profits is purely a matter of position size. Controlling position size is indispensable to success. Of all the traits necessary to trade successfully, this factor is the most under-valued.” – Mark Ritchie
ICYMI, on top of the usual Weekly Outlook, we also opened up access to one of our tactical updates this week > Euro and Swissy.
RTY, DXY and CL are three of the key charts we will be focusing on and reviewing today. They are all hovering around key resistances and how we settle post NFP will likely be key for the next swing moves.
All in all, our thinking is still in line with our Monday Morning Update.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Morning Update
“It is only when we truly know and understand that we don’t know … and had no way of knowing, that we know we have to find out what we don’t know.” – Marshall J. Jones
All about headline risk with US/CHina and Powell on deck 3 out of 5 days. The key questions remains if this China Trade Deal is just going to be one big Buy the Rumor and Sell the News event.
The big questions traders have to ask themselves are: what has changed since the December sell-off (data and guidance actually deteriorating) and what are the chances that any deal is a real and substantial game-changer (not very high).
As always, we remain open to any kind of move, remembering that markets can remain irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent but we continue to believe that markets remain extremely complacent as the o/n ramps continue…
ICYMI please read up on the upcoming addition to the 50 on Markets Video Service.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
EOW Update
“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality — but reality as distorted by a misconception. Under normal conditions misconceptions are self-correcting, and the markets tend toward some kind of equilibrium. Occasionally, a misconception is reinforced by a trend prevailing in reality, and that is when a boom-bust process gets under way. Eventually the gap between reality and its false interpretation becomes unsustainable, and the bubble bursts.” – George Soros
No change to our recent discussions and bigger picture outlook. As we discussed yesterday, we have to be patient and let things play out especially post FOMC as we know that markets like to wait 24/48h before picking a direction.
Apart from the continued focus on how the indices react around our key bull/bear lines and the 200DMAs, today’s close will give us another important piece of information though the weekly candle closes.
Remember that we have a whole host of FOMC Members and Draghi speaking today so, on top of the usual US/CHina + Brexit headline risk, we will have to deal with the CBs too.
ICYMI, Here is our update charts/thread from yesterday > read on Twitter and please read up on the upcoming addition to the 50 on Markets Video Service.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Patience
“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore
we have to be patient post FOMC as markets usually take 24/48 hour to settle and pick a direction. We have attached the update FANG and DXY charts along with our latest Outlook Video as nothing much has really changed.
Here is our update charts/thread pre the minutes > read on Twitter.
ICYMI, read up on the upcoming addition to the 50 on Markets Video Service.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Again, Eyes on Tech
“If you look around, complacency is the great disease of your autumn years, and I work hard to prevent that.” – Nick Cave
As highlighted in yesterday’s post, Tech is at a key turning point and despite the general grind higher in the markets, FANG+ names were starting to look tired and unable to really follow the press higher. We reiterate out call for a pause and the start of a retracement from these levels. Furthermore, we continue to stick with our unpopular call for weaker USD and will continue to discuss this along with recent intraday action in the metals in today’s webinar session.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“I have seen many storms in my life. Most storms have caught me by surprise, so I had to learn very quickly to look further and understand that I am not capable of controlling the weather, to exercise the art of patience and to respect the fury of nature.” – Paulo Coelho
As we have been discussing, technically, DXY is still stuck in a range and likely waiting for more significant breakthrough on the data / central bank side. Our base-case remains that it will continue to be very choppy inside this range but our gut-feel is telling us that this is ultimately setting up a ‘bull-trap’. We’ll review this in detail along with various scenarios in today’s webinar session.
If you missed it, you can always catch up on our > Latest Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Monday Morning Update
“The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements.” – Jesse Livermore
Here are 3 key charts to keep an eye on into the new week. Non-Subscribers will get more detail on these when we unlock access to the Weekly Outlook Video tomorrow.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great week ahead.
Post FOMC Chart Update
“I find it fascinating that most people plan their vacations with better care than they do their lives. Perhaps that is because escape is easier than change. “ – Jim Rohn