Charts of the Day

“Do not permit the events of your daily life to bind you, but never withdraw yourself from them.” – Zen Proverb
Markets remain in grind higher mode as we wait for the last trading session of the week. There is very little edge in trying to fade these steady grinds, especially into quadruple witching.
Remember that today usually results in one of the most active trading days of the year. Furthermore, we will also see S&P and MSCI proceed to the re-classification/re-categorization of information technology and communications sectors and don’t forget that we usually to see tape bombs hit the wires in the latter part of these Friday sessions.
Could end up being a fairly sporty day…
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Chart of the Day

“Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty.” – Jacob Bronowski
As we navigate headline risk and get ready for the BOE and ECB decisions, there is no change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
Equities continue to chop around at highs as we wait for the next catalyst for a proper move and once again, we reiterate, something has to give as this divergence between the US and the rest of the world will not continue ad infinitum.
The most interesting recent development is the DXY trying to get some downside traction as we continue to focus on the failure in the 96s and expect a retest of the 50WMA before we get more clarity on the bigger cyclical direction. We remain open to what price will tell us but as for now, we are still leaning to the downside.
Remember that there are a lot of stretched positions that still need to unwind if this DXY downside gets traction. Apart from the commodity complex, notably we had highlighted CHF and NZD with the former having played out and the latter still very much in play.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things only hoped for. ” – Epicurious
ICYMI, please check out our latest: Weekly Outlook Video.
Once again, we expect this week to potentially be pivotal in confirming or invalidating the current cyclical moves that are trying to get traction. A lot of data on deck coupled with a busy Central Bank schedule and mounting headline risk should be the ingredients for some very interesting action.
Focus remains on the DXY and the tech sector where Apple and Amazon will continue to be in the spot light.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Chart of the Day

“Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.” – Will Rogers
As discussed in our Latest Weekly Outlook video, one of the most important charts to keep an eye on this week remains the DXY. As we have been repeatedly highlighting, it was not a question of ‘if’ Trump was going to comment on currency moves and the strong dollar but just a question on ‘when’. Heads up for more headline risk as we don’t expect Trump to back down and especially as we get closer to Jackson Hole.
No change to our outlook on equities, our focus remains on tech weakness and remember to keep and eye on GOLD and SWISSY as positioning there could really spark some interesting moves.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
ICYMI (offer will end this week) >Video Updates: Early Bird. If you have any questions on this service, please do not hesitate to use to the contact form to get in touch.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Mid-Week Update

“Never think that lack of variability is stability. Don’t confuse lack of volatility with stability, ever.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Summer chop continues even if we do have Elon trying to make this more interesting. If you want to take the other side of Mr. Musk, after yesterday, your risk is pretty much defined at 420 and most likely, at a 10% discount to that number in the short-term 😉 We’ll discuss this in more detail in the webinar session later on today.
Short post as not change to our latest Weekly Outlook Video (nice action in Aussie & Kiwi so far) and yesterday’s blog post. Charts for today > updated NQ at the pivotal gap-fill level and DXY at the magical 95 mark.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day

“As long as we are persistence in our pursuit of our deepest destiny, we will continue to grow. We cannot choose the day or time when we will fully bloom. It happens in its own time.” – Denis Waitley
Another key day ahead of us as we head into NFP and ISM.
Once again markets seem to be ignoring mounting tensions with China and general tensions around Washington. We continue to think that this is a major event risk and that the situation needs to be monitored as it can very easily and quickly escalate. Keep and eye on China retaliation (it’s not a question on *if* but rather just a question of when) and Asia markets (ugly sell-off across the board and especially USDCNH pressing for the 7 mark).
The most important chart to keep an eye on is the DXY. We are pressing that 95 mark again and a break and weekly close above has the potential to trigger aggressive moves with multiple structural repercussions for many asset classes.
ICYMI >Video Updates: Early Bird. If you have any questions on this service, please do not hesitate to use to the contact form to get in touch.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

“Have you ever had that moment when you looked back on something and said, ‘Well, gosh, that seems obvious now… why didn’t I see it then?’ I like to call this the Face Palm Epiphany. Oh, hindsight, you magical, humbling thing.” – Alethea Konti
A lot of moving parts today as we head into this GDP print and the end of the week.
Here are the key charts we will be reviewing and discussing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Some Charts for the Week

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great week ahead.

Chart of the Day

“I learned how to play poker at a very young age. My father taught me the concept of playing the percentage hands. You don’t just play every hand and stay through every card, because if you do, you will have a much higher probability of losing. You should play the good hands, and drop out of the poor hands, forfeiting the ante. When more of the cards are on the table and you have a very strong hand — in other words, when you feel the percentages are skewed in your favor — you raise and play that hand to the hilt. If you apply the same principles of poker strategy to trading, it increases your odds of winning significantly. I have always tried to keep the concept of patience in mind by waiting for the right trade, just like you wait for the percentage hand in poker. If a trade doesn’t look right, you get out and take a small loss; it’s precisely equivalent to forfeiting the ante by dropping out of a poor hand in poker. On the other hand, when the percentages seem to be strongly in your favor, you should be aggressive and really try to leverage the trade similar to the way you raise on the good hands in poker.” – Gary Bielfeldt
DXY remains a key piece of the puzzle and one of the most important charts to keep on the radar. It’s all about how we trade here at the 95s as we see the majors in key zone and attempting reversals. As discussed, day closes are interesting but we really have to see how we close the week and potentially the month. It’s a tricky zone prone to sending a lot of mixed messages.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on bonds today. Should get interesting…
No change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, and as always, keep an eye on the Twitter Feed for updated charts and commentary.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Note for active 50Scouts members: webinar session pass postponed to next week.