Focus on DXY

LLOYD: “I’ll bet you 20 bucks I can get you gambling before the end of the day!?”
HARRY: “No way.”
LLOYD: “I’ll give you 3 to 1 odds?”
HARRY: “Nope.”
LLOYD: “5 to 1?”
HARRY: “Nope.”
LLOYD: “10 to 1?”
HARRY: “You’re on.”
 – Dumb and Dumber
No change to the latest weekly outlook video. Today we’ll focus on 3 key charts and how their relationship is key for future cyclical moves.
1. The bulls are in control on the equity side as the squeeze continues > key test here on the ES at the 2700 pivotal level in this broader chop zone:

2. DXY is still in a grind higher mode, clipping upside stops but starting to stall:

3. Gold has been trying to flush weak longs but keeps on showing signs of trying to base and coil:

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for Trump

“I don’t think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.” – Richard Dennis
Short-term, it’s all about the announcement on the Iran deal at 2:00 PM EST today. No change to the latest weekly outlook video. We’ll just have to be patient…
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Market Moves

“Human emotion is both a source of opportunity in trading and the greatest challenge. Master it and you will succeed > Ignore it at your peril.” – Curtis Faith
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, despite the fact that markets were trading heavy and that we expect a retest of yearly lows, markets tend to not only move in one direction for a sustained period of time. Two-way action is healthy and participants should not be surprised to see a bounce that could make it back to the 50DMAs. So far, no change in outlook, the levels are set and we have to let the market play out.
The only comment we would like to add it that recent moves to the downside have been a lot more orderly that the squeeze we witnessed yesterday. From our experience, even if this kind of squeeze action tends to always surprise as to how aggressive and sustained it can be, ultimately, they tend to give it all back. The velocity of moves is the real tell… There are a lot of factors in play but in our opinion, the underlying action is not that of a strong market but rather continues to be that of fragile squeezes in a market that still has unfinished business at lower levels.
We will discuss this in a lot more detail in today’s session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Big J in da House

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” – Warren Buffett
Very busy day ahead. Focus will be on positioning and squaring as we wait for FOMC. Remember that there will be a lot for the market to digest, not only in terms of what will be announced today but also for how to price/adapt to the future outlook.
Here are some of the key charts that we will be discussing/analyzing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart-Book

“I believe in Karma. If the good is sown, the good is collected. When positive things are made, that returns well.” – Yannick Noah
As we reviewed yesterday, the moves discussed in the latest Weekly Outlook Video are in play.
Short-term, the focus will be to see if the bears can hold the pressure on as we move through triple witching. Clearly, the risk is of a bounce into expiration and how markets move will be very telling. The biggest surprise to most participants will be if indices continue to hold heavy into the close on Friday.
No change to our current outlook > here are a series of links to some of our chart-book: NQ_F, ES_F, YM_F, XLF, USDJPY, JNK, HG, EURJPY, AMZN, BTCUSD and AAPL.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Mid-Week Update

“The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it.” – Henry David Thoreau
So far, the levels we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video are working > YM failed at that 50DMA, ES at that 2800 and NQ at our primary target into the 7210s. In terms of the Bonds, as expected, they are trying gt bounce into FOMC and the DXY remains heavy.
As we have already discussed in various occasions, broadly speaking, we are still chopping around in these ranges so there is very little to add to what we have been discussing and reviewing. As much as this kind of action may be frustrating to the die-hard bears or bulls, active traders really can’t complain. We are getting very tradable intraday ranges and even if some of these moves have been tricky, markets are moving and keep on offering plenty of opportunity.
Going into today it’s all and only about one thing: follow-through.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chop Chop

“Workaholics are addicted to activity; superachievers are committed to results.” – Charles Garfield
We remain stuck in broader ranges as we wait for all the Central Banks, more clarity on possible tariffs and NFP.
In case you missed our latest review, please check out the weekly outlook video.
Today’s charts:
ES > our base-case hypothesis
SPX > fight is on, breakout will likely bring momo to rest extremes
DXY > as discussed in the video, we need to be patient and wait for a break outside of this sideways chop zone
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart Book

“The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
We got some very nice intraday action yesterday across the board. As expected, the cleanest opportunity in terms of location, technicals and context was around the 7k level on NQ for a retest of previous day lows and thanks to Powell, very similar setups triggered on YM and ES too with failures at previous day highs. The focus now is going to be on how we trade into month and and if we can get some follow-through.
As we have been discussing, other points of interest will be: indices in Asia and Europe (they have been holding heavy), DXY momo (crucial for current moves to stick) and CL on EIA today (key weekly level).
Here are soe of the charts we will be going through today:
If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Getting Interesting

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
Quick post today > focus is on how we trade into the end of the day and especially on Monday if markets close heavy. Moves are in play and nothing has changed, so please go back to the posts we put out earlier in the week if you are looking for a bit more clarity on what is playing out.
50Scouts members: please check your inbox for a free pass to today’s webinar session.
Here are 3 key charts to keep an eye out on:

Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.