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Post FOMC Chart Update
“I find it fascinating that most people plan their vacations with better care than they do their lives. Perhaps that is because escape is easier than change. “ – Jim Rohn
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing and reviewing today in the webinar session. Will also try to update some extra ones on the Twitter Feed.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Into ECB
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge
At this stage, we just have to be patient and get through the last ECB and FOMC meetings of the year.
Nothing much has change in terms of our bigger picture view. We still feel that markets are being extremely complacent and that we are currently in a distributive phase of the cycle. Naturally this does not mean that we could not move back higher but our belief is that the risk/reward is still on the ‘sell into strength camp’ both from a tactical and cyclical perspective.
Following on from our bigger picture Pivotal weaker DXY theme, here are 3 key charts that we will be discussing and reviewing:
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Early Morning Update
“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
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Nikkei and USDJPY breakdown, range and inflection point.
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Bigger picture Bull/Bear lines in ES/NQ/YM/RTY.
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GOLD $ DXY.
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EURUSD 1.13 rotation + seasonal pattern.
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ZB cyclical support inside chop zone.
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SPX still in range.
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NDX key inflection point.
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Crude, the 200WMA and waiting for OPEC.
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead
Chart of the Day
“Move not unless you see an advantage” – Sun Tzu
Bigger picture discussed in our Latest Weekly Outlook Video. Even after Powell, the focus remains on headline risk and what will come out of the G20 this weekend. Naturally, markets will have to adjust following yesterday’s remarks but remember that it takes more than half a trading session for things to be properly digested.
Despite suspect action in Bonds and the Vix, as far as equities are concerned, we see no big change in outlook. Where things are getting interesting is on the DXY. As previously discussed, we have been focused on EURUSD action around the 1.13 mark and also how this plays out into a seasonally bullish period for the euro > stalking euro swing longs.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Charts of the Day
“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt
No big change from our Latest Weekly Outlook Video. The focus remains on headline risk and what will come out of the G20 this weekend. Nothing else matter short-term…
Here are some of the key charts to keep an eye on:
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Charts of the Day
“Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds you plant.” – Robert Louis Stevenson
Here are 3 of the key weekly charts that were the focus of our outlook video and key for this shortened holiday trading week. Remember that trading conditions will likely be thin in the coming days with continued headline risk.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Charts of the Day
“And yes, you should lose, and I know I can lose and should lose, it’s just a question of quantity. If you lose more than you should have done, that’s when you get into trouble. It’s a lack of discipline in sticking to what you decided you were going to do that causes difficulties. A lot of traders don’t focus on their targets and fail to block out emotions like hope, fear and greed.” – David Kyte
Key inflection points across the board as we continue to experience good conditions for traders. Here are some of the Key Charts that we will be focusing on and reviewing today.
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Still hovering, our focus remains on the weekly close > Weekly DXY.
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Key structural level and psychological support > Euro Monthly. Don’t forget to keep an eye on action around the 1.13 mark.
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Keep an eye on action around the 114 mark in light of recent flows on equities. USDJPY can move quick inside range.
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Market is still very long USD especially against NZD > unwind still in play.
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Kay test for AUSDUSD > heads up for general risk flows.
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Consider primary move done in Crude > Key Support.
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SPX back in the middle. No change in expectation for retest of yearly lows > still in broader range.
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AAPL > unwind still in play.
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And many more…
If you missed it, you might be interested in watching our Latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.” – Warren Buffett
Not going to sugarcoat it; markets are struggling to get any real traction. This kind of action tends to be pretty frustrating for traders and tends to tempt us to do silly things. It’s really important to stick to your set-ups / rules and stay as detached as possible from the action. The key is always to try and be as mechanical as possible in everything we do. Yes, I know; easier said than done 😉 Having said this, as discussed in our Latest Weekly Outlook video, there are very interesting dynamics in play and we just have to be patient as markets try to navigate around tariff headlines and the Trump-Manford-Cohen debacle.
Main focus today, as equities continue to chop around at highs, is going to be if the DXY resumes the recently started correction.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
ICYMI (offer will end this week) >Video Updates: Early Bird. If you have any questions on this service, please do not hesitate to use to the contact form to get in touch.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
