“Magnitude of losses and profits is purely a matter of position size. Controlling position size is indispensable to success. Of all the traits necessary to trade successfully, this factor is the most under-valued.” – Mark Ritchie
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Chart of the Day
“Leadership is lifting a person’s vision to high sights, the raising of a person’s performance to a higher standard, the building of a personality beyond its normal limitations.” – Peter F. Drucker
Outlook still very much in play: Weekly Video. Remember to keep an eye on the weekly closes today.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Morning Update
“It is only when we truly know and understand that we don’t know … and had no way of knowing, that we know we have to find out what we don’t know.” – Marshall J. Jones
All about headline risk with US/CHina and Powell on deck 3 out of 5 days. The key questions remains if this China Trade Deal is just going to be one big Buy the Rumor and Sell the News event.
The big questions traders have to ask themselves are: what has changed since the December sell-off (data and guidance actually deteriorating) and what are the chances that any deal is a real and substantial game-changer (not very high).
As always, we remain open to any kind of move, remembering that markets can remain irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent but we continue to believe that markets remain extremely complacent as the o/n ramps continue…
ICYMI please read up on the upcoming addition to the 50 on Markets Video Service.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
EOW Update
“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality — but reality as distorted by a misconception. Under normal conditions misconceptions are self-correcting, and the markets tend toward some kind of equilibrium. Occasionally, a misconception is reinforced by a trend prevailing in reality, and that is when a boom-bust process gets under way. Eventually the gap between reality and its false interpretation becomes unsustainable, and the bubble bursts.” – George Soros
No change to our recent discussions and bigger picture outlook. As we discussed yesterday, we have to be patient and let things play out especially post FOMC as we know that markets like to wait 24/48h before picking a direction.
Apart from the continued focus on how the indices react around our key bull/bear lines and the 200DMAs, today’s close will give us another important piece of information though the weekly candle closes.
Remember that we have a whole host of FOMC Members and Draghi speaking today so, on top of the usual US/CHina + Brexit headline risk, we will have to deal with the CBs too.
ICYMI, Here is our update charts/thread from yesterday > read on Twitter and please read up on the upcoming addition to the 50 on Markets Video Service.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Early Morning Update
“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” – Arnold Schwarzenegger
As we discussed, there was absolutely no sign of fear in the markets and expected recent lows to be taken out and we are still focused on unfinished business at yearly lows. Once again, the pivotal bull/bear lines proved to be extremely useful in assisting us and we will continue to focus on them. Naturally we would never play for any market to move in a straight line and even if we get a flush and tradeable bounce, those levels will remain our key strategic guides. Primary downside targets are still 4-6% away on most of the indices for these current moves.
We also continue to expect both Nikkei and USDJPY to catch up to recent moves and expect to see plenty of two-way trading opportunity inside these ranges on the way to the bottom-end supports.
The other key chart going into this week, ECB and the upcoming FOMC meeting will be the DXY. We would be very cautious about trying to be aggressive trying to fade ans sustained move and continue to focus on EURUSD. Don’t forget to properly understand Euro weight in this and remember that in an aggressive risk-off environment, especially in the context of China frictions, AUssie and Kiwi will struggle. No change in our base-case outlook.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you all a great day and week ahead.
Into NFP
markets managed another miraculous squeeze following yet another host of old headlines but still closed below the key pivotal bull/bear lines. We remain very suspicious of this action and are not seeing this as another key low that will trigger the famous santa rally for a move back into all time highs.
Naturally, especially into NFP, we still see a possible attempt to squeeze these back into proper gap fills but the real focus will be on how we close the day/week and not on intraday shenanigans. Both complacency and headline risks remains very high and we would not be fans on risk-on o/n holds.
The main key chart for NFp will be the dxy. We are still hovering around the 97 mark and unless we see a proper close above 98 of below 96 we will likely continue to see very choppy trading. As already discussed, this is the key piece of the puzzle and we will review our outlook and implications in today’s webinar session.
Remember that even if the usual suspects have been talking about capitulation and reversal, we have see zero panic in the markets. From current levels, unless you see the VIX trading above 30 but really, into the 35s and 40s, this is still pretty much a ‘nothing burger’.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Early Morning Update
“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
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Nikkei and USDJPY breakdown, range and inflection point.
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Bigger picture Bull/Bear lines in ES/NQ/YM/RTY.
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GOLD $ DXY.
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EURUSD 1.13 rotation + seasonal pattern.
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ZB cyclical support inside chop zone.
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SPX still in range.
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NDX key inflection point.
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Crude, the 200WMA and waiting for OPEC.
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead
Focus on Pivotal Levels
“If you would hit the mark, you must aim a little above it; every arrow that flies feels the attraction of earth.” – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
Busy week ahead with US Mid-Terms Election, RBA, RBNZ and FOMC. As headline risk remains very high, the focus will be on how we close the week with respect to those 200DMAs and the 50Back retracements of the recent moves from the all time highs. Remember to keep an eye on USDCNH, and the weekly chop zones on DXY and therefore the Euro.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Charts of the Day
“Beware those who seek constant crowds for they are nothing alone.” – Charles Bukowski
Busy day as we will have to deal with o/n China Deal news, AAPL post earnings shenanigans and NFP.
Not much has changed to what we have been discussing this week. If interested, just scroll back through recent posts and charts.
Here are some of the key dynamics to focus on today:
