Early Morning Update

“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” – Arnold Schwarzenegger

As we discussed, there was absolutely no sign of fear in the markets and expected recent lows to be taken out and we are still focused on unfinished business at yearly lows. Once again, the pivotal bull/bear lines proved to be extremely useful in assisting us and we will continue to focus on them. Naturally we would never play for any market to move in a straight line and even if we get a flush and tradeable bounce, those levels will remain our key strategic guides. Primary downside targets are still 4-6% away on most of the indices for these current moves.
We also continue to expect both Nikkei and USDJPY to catch up to recent moves and expect to see plenty of two-way trading opportunity inside these ranges on the way to the bottom-end supports.
The other key chart going into this week, ECB and the upcoming FOMC meeting will be the DXY. We would be very cautious about trying to be aggressive trying to fade ans sustained move and continue to focus on EURUSD. Don’t forget to properly understand Euro weight in this and remember that in an aggressive risk-off environment, especially in the context of China frictions, AUssie and Kiwi will struggle. No change in our base-case outlook.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you all a great day and week ahead.

Into NFP

markets managed another miraculous squeeze following yet another host of old headlines but still closed below the key pivotal bull/bear lines. We remain very suspicious of this action and are not seeing this as another key low that will trigger the famous santa rally for a move back into all time highs.
Naturally, especially into NFP, we still see a possible attempt to squeeze these back into proper gap fills but the real focus will be on how we close the day/week and not on intraday shenanigans. Both complacency and headline risks remains very high and we would not be fans on risk-on o/n holds.
The main key chart for NFp will be the dxy. We are still hovering around the 97 mark and unless we see a proper close above 98 of below 96 we will likely continue to see very choppy trading. As already discussed, this is the key piece of the puzzle and we will review our outlook and implications in today’s webinar session.
Remember that even if the usual suspects have been talking about capitulation and reversal, we have see zero panic in the markets. From current levels, unless you see the VIX trading above 30 but really, into the 35s and 40s, this is still pretty much a ‘nothing burger’.
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Early Morning Update

“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead

Focus on Pivotal Levels

“If you would hit the mark, you must aim a little above it; every arrow that flies feels the attraction of earth.” – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
Busy week ahead with US Mid-Terms Election, RBA, RBNZ and FOMC. As headline risk remains very high, the focus will be on how we close the week with respect to those 200DMAs and the 50Back retracements of the recent moves from the all time highs. Remember to keep an eye on USDCNH, and the weekly chop zones on DXY and therefore the Euro.

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

“Beware those who seek constant crowds for they are nothing alone.” – Charles Bukowski
Busy day as we will have to deal with o/n China Deal news, AAPL post earnings shenanigans and NFP.
Not much has changed to what we have been discussing this week. If interested, just scroll back through recent posts and charts.
Here are some of the key dynamics to focus on today:

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Every man who knows how to read has it in his power to magnify himself, to multiply the ways in which he exists, to make his life full, significant and interesting.” – Aldous Huxley
If you are not paying attention to CNH, then you are probably not paying attention. Intraday action has been extremely interesting and has been offering an incredible opportunity to see how flows are being influenced by the fight that is taking place at highs. Today we will discuss this in detail and review why this is a key piece of the puzzle to spark the next moves in the fx and metals space.
In terms of equities, remember to keep an eye on the ‘flip the switch’ pivotal levels, so far so good with respect to our outlook. We will review and discuss management of the downside rotations, along with the respecting evolving targets for the bigger moves.
Also don’t forget to keep in mind that AAPL is still doing the heavy lifting and that all in all, it still hasn’t move much…

Don’t forget to keep an eye on Japan.
Check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Charts of the Day

“The victory of success is half won when one gains the habit of setting goals and achieving them. Even the most tedious chore will become endurable as you parade through each day convinced that every task, no matter how menial or boring, brings you closer to fulfilling your dreams.” – Og Mandino
Another key day in the markets as the cavalry came in and saved the day right at those key marks on ES/YM/NQ. Once again, we cannot stress how important those levels are from a day and week closing basis. We have been discussing and detailing this for some time but even if you haven’t been in the sessions, the price action should be self explanatory.
If you missed if, check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video. In response to a few questions that came in and to make sure the release schedule is clear, please note that, for the time being, the outlook video is available to 50 on Markets subscribers into the Sunday open and then posted on the blog after the Monday US open.
We have attached 3 of the most important screens we are focused on at the moment. Finally markets are moving again and giving us plenty of opportunity. Remember to focus on the bigger picture, especially now that traditional correlations are starting to come back into play.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“In essence, if we want to direct our lives, we must take control of our consistent actions. It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives, but what we do consistently.” – Tony Robbins
Another key day in the markets as the Shanghai Composite bounce is fading. If you missed if, please check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video. We covered the main themes for the week and there is very little to add so far.
Remember to keep an eye on USDCNH as that will be one of the main intraday drivers of momo and flows, especially in relation to the metals. It’s a key piece of the puzzle and as we have been discussing, of the virtuous chain-reaction across asset-classes. More on all this in the webinar into NY open.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Some Key Charts

“Soros is the best loss taker I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn’t work, he’s confident enough about his ability to win on other trades. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear only the ones that fit. If you’re extremely confident, taking a loss doesn’t bother you.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
As we have been discussing, we are at key inflection points across the board and it looks like Chairman Powell has just added some fuel to the fire. There are far too many moving parts to discuss in a blog post today, if you were thinking about it, this is an ideal time to look into some of our premium content. We’ll leave you with a selection of key charts we are focused on.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
CRUDE > https://www.tradingview.com/x/5fNsVogI/
Nikkei > https://www.tradingview.com/x/2GjROEz5/
ZB > https://www.tradingview.com/x/IBO1EpUz/
NQ > https://www.tradingview.com/x/MGL4fAGY/
FANG > https://www.tradingview.com/x/7HPVO8xD/
SILVER > https://www.tradingview.com/x/ubjkfADZ/
RTY (leading) > https://www.tradingview.com/x/cLNIjIXp/
NQ & FANG (AAPL trying to hold) > https://www.tradingview.com/x/kg9vMu3F/
DXY > https://www.tradingview.com/x/6sCH5QJ5/
NIKKEI & USDJPY > https://www.tradingview.com/x/BvZbMp1A/