“Determination is the strength that will enable you to pass the barrier of useless thoughts in order to create positive thoughts and to be successful in whatever you wish. It comes from within and its partner is patience. Patience teaches you not to push but rather to wait and appreciate the game of life instead, knowing that nothing remains the same, and everything will change at some point.” – bkwsu.org
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Game Time
“You should never be in a position where the outcome of one single trade could change your life; neither for the good, nor for the bad. Once you really internalize this – and it’s a lot harder to do than it may seem on the surface of things – then you are ready to start working on consistency and longevity in a professional manner.”
As we discussed in the Weekly Outlook Video, the main focus this week was getting to this ‘mega’ Thursday. naturally, with these kinds of events, there is always the risk of the day ending up to be a disappointment in terms of actual moves but it does look like we should get some action.
Just as a reminder: UK Elections, ECB Rate/Presser and Comey testifies. Here are some of the charts and levels we’ll be focusing on.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
No Pain & Gain
“Magnitude of losses and profits is purely a matter of position size. Controlling position size is indispensable to success. Of all the traits necessary to trade successfully, this factor is the most under-valued.” – Mark Ritchie
We are getting ready to see what comes out of OPEC today as the equity ramp, on far from impressive volumes, continues. So far, more of the same: equities up, DXY down, VIX down but with bonds and GOLD still bid… something has to give. As we like to say, it’s not a matter or ‘if’, just a question of ‘when. Stay tuned…
Videos uploaded this week: Morning Call & Weekly Outlook.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Perking Up
“You have to be able to think clearly and act decisively in a panic market. The markets that go wild are the ones with the best opportunity. Traditionally, what happens in a market that goes berserk is that even veteran traders will tend to stand aside. That’s your opportunity to make the money.” – Mark Ritchie
As discussed yesterday, we have been focused on DXY, ZBs and GOLD all trying to get some traction. The odd one out, in terms of USD weakness, has been USDJPY and that’s the chart to watch now as it gains downside traction whilst the VIX tries to perk up.
Unfortunately, still on new video updates as the voice is not fully back yet but you can always refer to the key charts on our radar that we posted on Sunday Week Ahead.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Context
Master Po: Close your eyes. What do you hear?
Young Caine: I hear the water, I hear the birds.
Po: Do you hear your own heartbeat?
Caine: No.
Po: Do you hear the grasshopper which is at your feet?
Caine: Old man, how is it that you hear these things?
Po: Young man, how is it that you do not?– Kung Fu (TV Series)
As usual, on Friday we always take some time to hold ourselves accountable and look back at how we saw things developing this week. On Sunday we posted our Weekly Outlook Video and updated our commentary in the midweek Morning Call. Furthermore, if you missed the post of the great latest developments going on with Darwinex, make sure you check out the post on Reloaded.
We have a lot of data on deck today and along with all of the recent geo-political developments, we should likely see a lot of choppy and potential violent moves. Depending on how markets move within these recent ranges, don’t be surprised to see a lot of positioning, hedging and squaring as we go into the weekend.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Still Waters Run Deep
“It’s not how much you have learned, but how much you have absorbed from what you have learned. It is not how much fixed knowledge you can accumulate, but what you can apply livingly that counts…” – Bruce Lee
The levels discussed in our Weely Outlook Video and in our Morning Call remain largely unchanged. As frustrating as it may be, we just have to be patient and let things play out. These last two days of the week, month and quarter are going to be very interesting and hopefully will add some clarity to the bigger picture and longer term cycles.
As far as the intraday action on currencies, we are still stuck in very choppy action around current levels: 1.08 Euro, 1.24 Cable, 111 Yen, as the DXY continues to flirt with the 100 mark. We feel that a lot of market participants are eagerly waiting for sustained breaks and momentum to accelerate but unfortunately, we feel that there is no reason for these move to trigger without a real catalyst.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Constructive Action
“Opportunity dances with those already on the dance floor.” – H. Jackson Brown, Jr.
What a difference a day makes… for a quick refresher on what we are looking for, you can always watch our Weely Outlook Video .
In the terms of the bigger picture these initial corrections are just a rounding error but that does not mean that they can’t turn into healthy moves. This is where you don’t take anything for granted, you stay unbiased but you realize that that best trade on the board may be the one you are already holding. Gold and Bonds were the first that confirmed defensive flows as IWM was the only one trying to move until XLF decided to join in.
To be continued…
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Auntie Yellen in Da House
“In music, the fundamental tone is the lowest, or root, tone of a chord. Without its presence, no true character is established. Our actions in life are as similarly varied and complex as music. Without a thorough grounding, there is no harmony… Everyone wants to be daring, creative, and original. Everyone wants to do things in new ways. But unless we return over and over again to the basics, we will have no chance to truly soar. Do not forget the root. Without it, we can never issue forth true power.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
As discussed in our Weely Outlook Video , for a longer term perspective, we remained focused on where price will close this week and how the action is contributing to monthly developments in the charts. There have been quite a few decent intraday opportunities so far this week but we must not forget that we are at what could end up being a key inflection point and this is why we are so focused on the bigger picture. As usual, we work very hard at simply interpreting what price is telling us and factoring that into the current context without having any particular bias. Naturally, this is easier said than done but we feel that we do a pretty good job at staying neutral.
We’ll leave you with a few updated charts to scan while we wait for the long awaited March FOMC release:
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.