“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.” – Paul Tudor Jones
We cannot put enough stress on the fact that there is more and more risk building up out of Washington. Apart from the Muller investigation, Stormy Daniels and Iran (who would have thought that these 3 would be in the same sentence), do not underestimate the tensions and action/reaction from the China tariff announcement. Once again, the market is being very complacent.
Our base case remains that Facebook is broken and if you look at some of the other names like Apple, the turn is trying to get traction… this is the most important development in the markets.
Naturally, everything is not lining up perfectly and there are still some stocks and asset classes that are not cooperating/not in sync but the potential for all the ducks to line up is definitely increasing.
In terms of intraday action, we always prefer to look at each chart independently and let price guide us but there are times when we need to put a little bit more weight behind the bigger picture/underlying currents.
Today’s focus will be to try and put all these pieces together whilst continuing to try and construct the best asymmetric risk/reward opportunities to take advantage of these developments.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.