Early Morning Outlook

“If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.” – Marcus Aurelius

As we head into the end of the the week and approach the end of the month, focus remains on the tech space and follow-through after this recent press through all time highs. Naturally, the squeeze can continue but indices are looking tired and not surprisingly, guidance it not causing any real fireworks.
We’ll have to see what the headline flows has in store for us as we move towards the close but unless Washington can pull another rabbit out of the hat, we would expect to see less as less interest to hold aggressive risk-on positions as we move into the weekend.
Indices: ES, YM and RTY are not buying what NQ is selling… in addition to MSFT, MMM and FB, we’ll need to keep a close eye on action INTC and AMZN.
Single stock event risk: Wirecard (remember it’s a DAX component) and Tesla. These don’t matter and don’t make the headlines until they do… most of you know how these things play out. We would really not underestimate the potential risk here…
FX: still all about the DXY and action around the 98 mark. No change to what we have been discussing. We have had very nice moves, especially in the commodity currencies but it’s time to remember that markets do not move in straight lines for sustained periods of time. Our conviction play remains on the YEN.
Commodities: all things considered, Gold is still holding up relatively well and don’t forget to keep an eye on Crude around the 65 mark. This is going to be key for momo and flows today…
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

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