“Don’t ever average losers. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well. Never trade in situations where you don’t have control. For example, I don’t risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading. ” – Paul Tudor Jones
In line with our base-case assumption, The squeeze continues into this CB heavy week as we get closer to NFP. The pivotal level to watch on ES remains the 2879 that is being protected by the 50Dma. THis level will be key as we move closer to FOMC and will likely be the ‘flip the switch’ zone that either caps this correction or opens up an even bigger squeeze back to ATH. To be clear, we are still bearish long-term but are just playing this counter trend squeeze as we wait for the next short trigger. As usual, we are trading price, not our bias. The only reason to trade is try and make money, not to be proven right on your convictions.
As some ‘food for thought’, here is a reminder on how the markets traded through rate-cut cycles. More on this in our video update and webinars in the coming days.
No change in our short and long term views on the DXY. Continues to move very technically as we go into Super Mario ECB day.
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