Clearly all about Jay today and how he manages to navigate through the press conference. We have been wrong before but we are not in the camp of a surprise cut as we feel that there is no reason to make a move until after the G20. More on this intoday’s webinar and also how we would assess the various probabilities and look to position ourselves.
the focus is going to be on the most crowded trade on the board with everyone obsessing over the 2% mark. As things stand, even if we probe below the 2% mark on the 10 Year Yield, we do not expect it to hold below on the first break and still think that we first need to see a shakeout of the stretched positions. Our short-term focus going into the meeting is on playing the extremes and the fact that we suspect the press conference will not deliver an even stronger uber dove-tone than the one that is already priced into the market for now.
On the other hand, we are not in the camp of one one and done. History shows that once we start… there is plenty more to come and politicians and central bankers around the world have been preparing us for a while now for NIRP… it appears that the real race to the bottom still has to accelerate but more on this in the webinars (this is not what we will be focused on today).
No change to what we have been discussing on indices, the dollar and crude. Let’s see what kind of tap dancing show Powell can put on today and what the President thinks of it. Sad but true… DJT a is key part of intraday trading and we have to make sure to factor this into out process and execution.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

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