“The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation
of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a
trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.” –
No change to our outlook:
(i) indices will likely have to fail from higher levels, we are still on track post what we expected to be a *fake-out* bearish engulfing and ramp back to take a stab at new highs. More on this in the webinar and updates where we will discuss more precise timings and scenarios.
(ii) Bonds still bid post Powell, the pain trade higher continues. We expected to see a correction before the next strong ramp higher but this has yet to materialize. Remember that if there is a good fade, it’s usually following the FOMC, not on the actual day.
(iii) DXY still heavy inside range. We were very focused on USDCNH and did not expecting a move through the 7 mark into G20, rather the opposite. We will update our scenario today but overall, we still expect a stab below the 98/96 range and no change in outlook on weaker not stronger DXY.
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