Liquidity and Complacency

“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few” – Shunryu Suzuki,

Over-night action confirmed what we have been discussing for a long time now: Liquidity and Complacency are a very big concern. If you are new to the blog, we would suggest you go through recent posts and Weekly Outlook Videos to get up to speed with our thinking.
Our bigger picture call for USDJPY into the 100 mark remains unchanged but for the time-being downside targets on the recent swing are done and we will review this in today’s webinar.
No change to AAPL too. What many called a ludicrous roadmap is moving along nicely..
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Charts of the Day

“And yes, you should lose, and I know I can lose and should lose, it’s just a question of quantity. If you lose more than you should have done, that’s when you get into trouble. It’s a lack of discipline in sticking to what you decided you were going to do that causes difficulties. A lot of traders don’t focus on their targets and fail to block out emotions like hope,  fear and greed.” – David Kyte
Key inflection points across the board as we continue to experience good conditions for traders. Here are some of the Key Charts that we will be focusing on and reviewing today.
If you missed it, you might be interested in watching our Latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Focus Remains on Tech

“Poker reveals to the frank observer something else of import—it will teach him about his own nature. Many bad players do not improve because the cannot bear self-knowledge” – David Mamet
In case you missed it, you can go through our > Weekly Outlook Video.
As we move into November, these are some of the points we will be focusing on in today’s webinar and video update:
1. How is FB going to settle today post earnings.
2. Are month-end flows going to come out swinging to defend the marks.
3. Can the month-end USD bid continue into November or is it just settling up swing opportunities.
4. How will AAPL trade post earnings, can it really stall the overall selling pressure or will it trigger an even larger correction.
5. Continue to keep an eye on intraday action in USDCNH for clues and tactical opportunities.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Key Inflection Point

“I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw
After focusing on drilling down on individual sector performance, today’s video and webinar will be focused on the tech space. There are a lot of interesting dynamics trying to play out this week as we head into NFP.
ICYMI, please check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Nothing defines humans better than their willingness to do irrational things in the pursuit of phenomenally unlikely payoffs. This is the principle behind lotteries, dating, and religion.” – Scott Adams
No real change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video. We still have to see what we get out of the BOE and ECB as Global markets continue to trade with a heavy tone.
The easiest way to get a feel for where we stand is just to plot the daily charts of pretty much any market around the world and you will see that they are trading heavy below the 50/100/200 DMAs while US indices are still sitting close to ATH. As you can see in the chart of the day, the ‘two generals’ are still working hard to prop the US up.
Something has to give and we suspect that it will probably end up being down to some kind of headline but one thing is certain, this divergence between the US and the rest of the world will not continue ad infinitum.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trade, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“A moment of choice is a moment of truth. It’s the testing point of our character and competence.” – Stephen Covey
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video. Over all we are still chopping around in recent ranges and we’ll have to see what we get with a lot more interesting data points, the Fed and NFP to close out the week. However, rest assured, trade wars remain the real canary in the goldmine, heads-up for anything hitting the headlines. We still think this is going to get worse before it has a chance of getting better.
Today’s focus will be on AAPL that is set to open at new ATHs close to the 200 mark. If you really stop and think about it, it’s pretty pathetic that what we’ve come to is the Bulls looking at one single company to save the current correction and take all equities back up to ATH. We continue to believe something structural changed after the Netflix release and our base-case is still that this broader correction still has room to run. More on this in today’s session…
Again, don’t forget to keep and eye on USDCNH/GOLD and the bonds.
ICYMI >Video Updates: Early Bird.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Eyes on Tech

“Many can talk the talk but few can translate this into a decent track-record… the basics are, pretty basic but practice is more tricky. If this rings true for you, you might want to focus more on understanding bet size and how that effects the translation of your edge. Obsessing about entry and triggers, all things being equal, is probably the least important aspect yet very few ever get this. Remember that if you get your bet size wrong, you could end up with a negative p&l even with a guaranteed mathematical edge.”Trading Reflections
Once again, at the risk of sounding like a broken record > eyes on tech. If the big names can’t hold up, then there is very little left to prop up this market that continues to trade heavy with a very different tape than to what we have been witnessing in recent years.
On the DXY side, as we have been highlighting and discussing, the most interesting tactical opportunity seems to be on the aussie for now. After having gone in-depth on the DXY move and what it means for the broader market, in today’s session we will turn our focus focus on yen, swissy and gold.
Regardless of how this plays out, we can’t complain, this continues to be a great market for traders across all asset classes.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for Apple

“Traders, when they make profits, have short communications; when they lose they drown you in details, theories, and charts.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Equities are still unable to attract new buyers and the heavy tone inside the choppy ranges continues.
Everyone is going to be waiting for Apple earning to see if they can ramp the market and finally catch a sustained bid. We are still in the ‘as good as it gets for now camp’ and as discussed in out latest weekly outlook video, we’ll be watching very closely for opportunities and focusing of how stocks close post-earnings.
Other key charts that we will be focusing on for today will be DXY and CL.

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart-Book

“I believe in Karma. If the good is sown, the good is collected. When positive things are made, that returns well.” – Yannick Noah
As we reviewed yesterday, the moves discussed in the latest Weekly Outlook Video are in play.
Short-term, the focus will be to see if the bears can hold the pressure on as we move through triple witching. Clearly, the risk is of a bounce into expiration and how markets move will be very telling. The biggest surprise to most participants will be if indices continue to hold heavy into the close on Friday.
No change to our current outlook > here are a series of links to some of our chart-book: NQ_F, ES_F, YM_F, XLF, USDJPY, JNK, HG, EURJPY, AMZN, BTCUSD and AAPL.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.