Chart of the Day

“Nothing defines humans better than their willingness to do irrational things in the pursuit of phenomenally unlikely payoffs. This is the principle behind lotteries, dating, and religion.” – Scott Adams
No real change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video. We still have to see what we get out of the BOE and ECB as Global markets continue to trade with a heavy tone.
The easiest way to get a feel for where we stand is just to plot the daily charts of pretty much any market around the world and you will see that they are trading heavy below the 50/100/200 DMAs while US indices are still sitting close to ATH. As you can see in the chart of the day, the ‘two generals’ are still working hard to prop the US up.
Something has to give and we suspect that it will probably end up being down to some kind of headline but one thing is certain, this divergence between the US and the rest of the world will not continue ad infinitum.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“A moment of choice is a moment of truth. It’s the testing point of our character and competence.” – Stephen Covey
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video. Over all we are still chopping around in recent ranges and we’ll have to see what we get with a lot more interesting data points, the Fed and NFP to close out the week. However, rest assured, trade wars remain the real canary in the goldmine, heads-up for anything hitting the headlines. We still think this is going to get worse before it has a chance of getting better.
Today’s focus will be on AAPL that is set to open at new ATHs close to the 200 mark. If you really stop and think about it, it’s pretty pathetic that what we’ve come to is the Bulls looking at one single company to save the current correction and take all equities back up to ATH. We continue to believe something structural changed after the Netflix release and our base-case is still that this broader correction still has room to run. More on this in today’s session…
Again, don’t forget to keep and eye on USDCNH/GOLD and the bonds.
ICYMI >Video Updates: Early Bird.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Eyes on Tech

“Many can talk the talk but few can translate this into a decent track-record… the basics are, pretty basic but practice is more tricky. If this rings true for you, you might want to focus more on understanding bet size and how that effects the translation of your edge. Obsessing about entry and triggers, all things being equal, is probably the least important aspect yet very few ever get this. Remember that if you get your bet size wrong, you could end up with a negative p&l even with a guaranteed mathematical edge.”Trading Reflections
Once again, at the risk of sounding like a broken record > eyes on tech. If the big names can’t hold up, then there is very little left to prop up this market that continues to trade heavy with a very different tape than to what we have been witnessing in recent years.
On the DXY side, as we have been highlighting and discussing, the most interesting tactical opportunity seems to be on the aussie for now. After having gone in-depth on the DXY move and what it means for the broader market, in today’s session we will turn our focus focus on yen, swissy and gold.
Regardless of how this plays out, we can’t complain, this continues to be a great market for traders across all asset classes.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for Apple

“Traders, when they make profits, have short communications; when they lose they drown you in details, theories, and charts.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Equities are still unable to attract new buyers and the heavy tone inside the choppy ranges continues.
Everyone is going to be waiting for Apple earning to see if they can ramp the market and finally catch a sustained bid. We are still in the ‘as good as it gets for now camp’ and as discussed in out latest weekly outlook video, we’ll be watching very closely for opportunities and focusing of how stocks close post-earnings.
Other key charts that we will be focusing on for today will be DXY and CL.

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart-Book

“I believe in Karma. If the good is sown, the good is collected. When positive things are made, that returns well.” – Yannick Noah
As we reviewed yesterday, the moves discussed in the latest Weekly Outlook Video are in play.
Short-term, the focus will be to see if the bears can hold the pressure on as we move through triple witching. Clearly, the risk is of a bounce into expiration and how markets move will be very telling. The biggest surprise to most participants will be if indices continue to hold heavy into the close on Friday.
No change to our current outlook > here are a series of links to some of our chart-book: NQ_F, ES_F, YM_F, XLF, USDJPY, JNK, HG, EURJPY, AMZN, BTCUSD and AAPL.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Buying Time

RESOLVE: Banish uncertainty. Affirm strength. Hold resolve. Expect death.
Make your stand today. On this spot. On this day. Make your actions count; do not falter in your determination to fulfill your destiny. Don’t follow the destiny outlined in some mystical book: Create your own.
Your resolve to tread the path of life is your best asset. Without it, you die. Death is unavoidable, but let it not be from loss of will but because your time is over. As long as you can keep going, use your imagination to cope with the travails of life. Overcome your obstacles and realize what you envision.
You will know unexpected happiness. You will know the sorrow of seeing what is dearest to you cut down before your eyes. Accept that. That is the nature of human existence, and you have no time to buffer this fact with fairy tales and illogical explanations.
Each day, your life grows shorter by twenty-four hours. The time to make achievements becomes more precious. You must fulfill everything you want in life and then release your will upon the moment of death. Your life is a creation that dies when you die. Release it, give up your individuality, and in so doing, finally merge completely with Tao.
Until that moment, create the poetry of your life with toughness and
determination.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
No big change to what we have been discussing. The main issue remains that broadly speaking, we are stuck and waiting for a catalyst. The SPX chart is probably the best one to look at to highlight this:
As you can see, DXY is also stuck, as discussed in out latest weekly outlook video.
Our most interesting swing chart (Crude), is finally getting some traction and it may actually hold the key to other asset classes finally starting to get some traction too:
If you had to only look at one level today, then it would have to be the 7000 mark on Nasdaq:
Always worth keeping an eye on:
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

All About Tech

“In my experience the greatest of artists and competitors are masters of navigating their own psychologies, playing on their strengths, controlling the tone of battle so that it fits with their personalities.” – Josh Waitzkin
As we have been discussing for quite some time, it’s all about the tech names and since Amazon has now accounted for almost 30% of the S&P gain this year (close to 50% if you factor in Microsoft and Netflix too), it only seems fitting that we end the week with a look at some of the tech charts:
Reminder, if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

On the Radar

“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
Luckily yesterday was not disappointing. As you can expect, it’s all about follow-through now. We’ll also have to see if indeed, as per recent reports, pensions will need to re-balance through selling an unusually high $12 billion of U.S. equities.
Keep inn mind that we still have a lot of headline risk from Davos today. Here are some of the key charts we will be reviewing in detail during our webinar:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
If you are struggling or looking to speed up your learning curve, you might be interested in our Foundational Webinar Series.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Tech Focus

“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt
We’ll be back full time on January 2nd but in the meantime here is a snapshot of some of the most interesting charts in our tech chart-book:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.