Morning Update

“It is only when we truly know and understand that we don’t know … and had no way of knowing, that we know we have to find out what we don’t know.” – Marshall J. Jones

All about headline risk with US/CHina and Powell on deck 3 out of 5 days. The key questions remains if this China Trade Deal is just going to be one big Buy the Rumor and Sell the News event.
The big questions traders have to ask themselves are: what has changed since the December sell-off (data and guidance actually deteriorating) and what are the chances that any deal is a real and substantial game-changer (not very high).
As always, we remain open to any kind of move, remembering that markets can remain irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent but we continue to believe that markets remain extremely complacent as the o/n ramps continue…
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Into Tech, FOMC and NFP Week

“The open doors of opportunity are all around you, but they won’t do you much good unless you learn to see them and recognize when to walk through them. “ – Jim Rohn

Key week shaping up as we: we start to get into the main part of this earnings cycle, await this next FOMC meeting and welcome the end of the government shutdown and the return of data releases.
We have gone into a lot more detail in the Weekly Outlook Video but suffice to say that, these next two weeks are going to be extremely important for the markets. In short, for the bears to get the most traction, we believe that they have to make a move here as if the can’t come back in full force before the end of the Buyback Blackout Period, then, shorter-term, the bulls will have an ideal chance to take a proper stab to press back into the 2800s.
Another key dynamic we have been discussing ad focusing on is the DXY. We would strongly recommend that you continue to keep a close eye on intraday action in USDCNH, especially if you are active in the metals markets.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart Update

“The greatest fear in the world is of the opinions of others. And the moment you are unafraid of the crowd you are no longer a sheep, you become a lion. A great roar arises in your heart, the roar of freedom.” – Osho

Today we will be reviewing 3 key charts we have been focusing on this week:
ES > all about the 2600 mark from a day and week close basis now as we wait for Powell to speak today. Don’t forget the Buyback Blackout Period and q4 Earning…
USDCNH > trade for the move back to the opposite side of the range is done and now it becomes very interesting. Remember that this is going to be key for a lot action across the board.
DXY > Moving along nicely for now. Focus will be on how we trade through Powell and how we settle this week but no change in outlook. Our Euro and Yen swings remain in play.
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Into ECB

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge

 At this stage, we just have to be patient and get through the last ECB and FOMC meetings of the year.
Nothing much has change in terms of our bigger picture view. We still feel that markets are being extremely complacent and that we are currently in a distributive phase of the cycle. Naturally this does not mean that we could not move back higher but our belief is that the risk/reward is still on the ‘sell into strength camp’ both from a tactical and cyclical perspective. 
Following on from our bigger picture Pivotal weaker DXY theme, here are 3 key charts that we will be discussing and reviewing:
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Charts of the Day

“You should sit in meditation for twenty minutes a day, unless you are too busy. Then you should sit for an hour.” – Zen Proverb
Here is a selection of key charts that we will be discussing and focusing on today:

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

“Beware those who seek constant crowds for they are nothing alone.” – Charles Bukowski
Busy day as we will have to deal with o/n China Deal news, AAPL post earnings shenanigans and NFP.
Not much has changed to what we have been discussing this week. If interested, just scroll back through recent posts and charts.
Here are some of the key dynamics to focus on today:

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“You don’t win once in a while, you don’t do things right once in a while, you do them right all the time. Winning is habit.” – Vince Lombardi
Yesterday’s range is  equities is going to be key. It’s going to be important for the bulls to get above it and hold the break into the end of the week to keep the positive momo. On the other hand, the bears need to get below and hold below. It may seem trivial but these levels are pivotal for a number of reasons. We will discuss more in today’s session.
As we have been highlighting, remember to keep an eye on USDCNH. It’s the key piece of the puzzle in order to understand current action in the metals and DXY.
Make sure you catch up on our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.” – Steve Jobs
As we have been discussing since the previous video and as highlighted once again in our latest outlook, our focus will remain on the DXY as we head into the end of the month and the Labor Day long weekend.
Remember that positioning is very one-sided on a lot of the pairs and you really want to be cautious about not getting caught fighting flows in a waive of covering. If interested, we posted the GOLD, NZDUSD and USDCHF charts on our twitter feed yesterday.
With respect to equities, there is very little to comment on > it’s a grind/squeeze higher until it isn’t… focus is all on follow-through and if markets can attract new buyers at highs. As always with these kind of moves, the key is riding the move but understanding that sooner or later there will be an exhaustion of buyers and you do not want to end up being the last bagholder.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

On the Radar

“Those who consider the inessential to be essential, and see the essential as inessential, don’t reach the essential, living in the field of wrong intention”
– Gautama Buddha
Not much has changed as we wait for BOE today and NFP / ISM tomorrow. We have attached to two main charts we would be keeping an eye on to get a feel is the ramp attempts in equities have any legs. We’ll stick with our base-case scenario that equities are still in a complex topping process and that we have already seen the highs in quite a few of the charts. Again, don’t forget to keep and eye on bonds!
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Wishing you a great day ahead.